Province has until fall to appoint commission that would redraw electoral boundaries

Pandemic or no pandemic, the Higgs government is facing a looming deadline to start the redrawing of the province's 49 electoral riding boundaries.

A provincial law requires the appointment of an independent commission by October, followed by public hearings and a preliminary report by next March.

Those hearings would have to take place while COVID-19 measures are still in effect in the province, including restrictions on indoor gatherings of more than 10 people.

Taking guidance from Public Health

Premier Blaine Higgs said in a statement that the commission will be appointed on schedule "so it can undertake its vital work."

He said the province "will take guidance from Public Health and other officials on how the commission can undertake its important outreach with New Brunswickers, in relation to the risks posed by COVID 19."

The law requires a redrawing of electoral boundaries every 10 years to reflect population increases and decreases.

That's to ensure that each riding has roughly the same number of voters so that political representation is roughly equal.

"In order for the population to be effectively represented, it's important that the boundaries be looked at [and] that they do reflect changes in population shifts, demographics, and whatnot," said chief electoral officer Kim Poffenroth.

Poffenroth's office organizes and regulates elections but plays no direct role in the creation of the commission.

But earlier this year she did remind staff in Higgs's office that the process would have to start soon.

"I just wanted to make sure they were aware there was a time limit there that was coming up," she said.

Commission must be in place by fall

Under New Brunswick's fixed-date election law, the next scheduled provincial vote will take place on Oct. 17, 2022. The commission must be in place no later than 24 months before that, meaning this fall.

It's an automatic requirement that must go ahead given the government has not introduced any legislation to delay the timeline.

The law that dictates the creation of the commission is also exempt from proposed new emergency powers now before the house that would let the cabinet suspend existing provincial laws.

The timeline requires a preliminary report within 150 days of the commission being appointed, which means around mid-March 2021.

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After a 14-day public comment period, the commission must issue a final report within 30 days, which means new ridings would probably take effect in May.

That introduces a new variable into speculation about election timing.

If the Higgs government were defeated next spring in a budget vote and an election were triggered, parties would be contesting existing ridings while knowing that a new map with new ridings was on the verge of being finalized.

If a campaign were triggered just a few weeks later, the new map would be in effect, and newly formed party associations would have to scramble to organize membership lists based on the new boundaries and to nominate candidates.

Adding rural constituencies

In the last redrawing in 2013, rural and northern areas lost seats to reflect their shrinking population, while the Moncton area, with its booming population, gained a riding.

The law at the time required ridings to have populations within five percent of a provincial average.

That forced the commission to create huge rural constituencies to stay within the legal range. The village of McAdam was added to the same riding as St. Stephen and St. Andrews.

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The constituency of Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin runs from Boiestown to Escuminac, a drive of more than two hours.

Francophone groups threatened legal action over the 2013 map, arguing placing the village of Memramcook in the new majority anglophone riding of Memramcook-Tantramar would reduce the voting clout of francophones.

They dropped the legal action after the Liberal government of Brian Gallant updated the law to let riding populationsizes deviate from the average by as much as 15 per cent.

Deviations of 25 per cent are allowed in "extraordinary circumstances" to ensure effective representation of anglophone and francophone communities, making it possible to accommodate Memramcook during the next redrawing.

The commission is to be made up of anglophone and francophone co-chairs and three to five members.

They're chosen based on recommendations by the legislative administration committee, which, for the first time since the boundaries law was created, has no government majority and is made up of MLAs from four parties.

Cutting MLAs to reduce political pressure

Earlier this year Higgs mused about how cutting the number of MLAs might reduce the political pressure on governments to spend more money on projects in ridings.

He said at a news conference that he would leave it to the commission to consider how many there should be.

In fact, the existing law establishes the number of ridings, not the commission, and the government hasn't introduced legislation to reduce the number from 49.