Here's what election night could mean for smaller parties

When it comes to elections in New Brunswick, it's pretty much always been a two-party race between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives.

But with the rise of smaller partiesthis campaign, there's some thoughtthatthe province is inching toward a multi-party system. Everything just has to fall intoplace on election night.

For partiessuch asthe People's Alliance and the NDP,it's all about getting a seat.

"It doesn't matter what you get in the popular vote. It matters if you get in the legislature," said J.P. Lewis, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick in Saint John.

"One seat each would be a good night."

How smaller parties could shake up NBs politics

6 years ago

Duration 1:35

From two to multi-party? This is how smaller parties could impact the election night outcome.

Green Party leader David Coon is hoping to keep his seat in Fredericton South and gain more. He broke through there during the 2014 election.

Lewis said Coon's election win elevated the Green Party's profile across the province, something the two other parties are eager to do.

Yethe suggests smaller partiesshould focus on ridings where they have a shot at winning rather than campaigning everywhere.

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He's noticed the People's Alliance are really focusingonFredericton-Grand Lake, where leader Kris Austin is running. Austin lost that riding in 2014 byjust 26 votes.

"In New Brunswick politics, these third parties surprise people because they aren't taken seriously," said Don Desserud, a political scientist at University of Prince Edward Island, who grew up in northern New Brunswick.

"A person that came within 26votes of winning his seatshould be taken seriously."

Fears and 'nonsense' overvote split

The Liberals and PCs have noticed.

Both parties are watching a handful of ridings very closely where smaller parties could split votes and cost them a traditional seat.

Liberal Leader Brian Gallant warned voters about itThursday.

"There's no doubt that people should ask themselves, however, if there is any sort of vote splitting are they contributing to the potential of Blaine Higgsand the Conservatives sneaking up the middle and forming government?" he said.

On the PC side, candidate Mary Wilson is campaigning with a chart, showing voters in her Oromocto-Lincoln-Frederictonriding how smaller parties split the vote last time and warning them not to vote for the People's Alliance.

Austin brushed off the idea of a vote split, calling it "nonsense."

"This is a lot of desperation mixed with a little bit of arrogance," he said in a video posted on Facebook, encouraging people not to "drink the blue Kool-Aid."

'Smaller parties can tip the scales'

The potential for split is real, though, given how three or even four parties are competitive in some ridings.

In a close election, if these smaller parties cause splits but don't win any seats it could mean a very long night trying to figure out who will form government.

But if these smaller parties start winning seats, they could suddenlyhave a large influence in a legislature with a slim majority or even a minority government. Just look at how the Greens hold the balance of power in the B.C. legislature.

"Smaller parties can tip the scales in unexpected ways," said Erin Crandall, an Acadia University political science professor, who also grew up in New Brunswick.

She's not certain what will happen but knows there is potential for small parties to make their break.

"It's a matter of timing. The time has to be right for your party."

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