PC win in Baie Verte-Green Bay shows voters are 'angry provincially,' political scientist says

A political scientist in Newfoundland and Labrador says a landslide Conservative Party victory in the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelectioncould serve as a temperature check for voters in the rest of the province ahead of a generalor federal election.

Lin Paddock won the byelection convincingly, taking 79 per cent of votes with a 56 per cent voter turnout. He told CBCNewsin an interview it shows voters in the province want a change from the Liberal government after nine years in office.

Amanda Bittner, a political scientist at Memorial University in St. John's, said a PC victory in the province's last two byelections could signal a desire for change and could also be a sign of frustration in response to factors like the rising cost of living.

"They're mad federally, they're angry provincially. Times are tough, it's been a really rough few years. The cost of living is out of control, and I think that folks are rightly noting that governments at all levels are not doing as much as they could to make things better," Bittnersaid Tuesday.

"I do think that is an indicator of general frustration with the Liberal party."

WATCH | Here are Furey's two reasons why the Liberals lost the byelection:

Furey says cost-of-living anxiety partly to blame for byelection loss

4 months ago

Duration 1:53

Progressive Conservative candidate Lin Paddock won the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection Monday night, costing Andrew Fureys Liberals a seat. The premier says people are anxious about the cost of everyday items in a post-COVID world, and that had an impact at the polls.

At the House of Assembly on Tuesday, a smiling Tony Wakehamarticulated the frustration he heard from voters about rising costs, health-care concerns and the handling of the fisherywhile campaigning with Paddock.

"People are talking about the need for change," said the PC leader.

"When you put all these cumulative things together, the people of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador are saying it's time. It's time we had a different direction."

Federal polls could play a factor

Premier Andrew Furey said Tuesday the party knew ithad an uphill battle in the byelection. He told reporters he knows he has work to do in the districtand is eager to regain voter trust.

When asked about what factors could have led to the landslide loss, Furey cited two points: anxiety around the rising cost of living after the onset of theCOVID-19 pandemic, and what he called "anger" toward Liberalsreflected in federal pollsthat showa growing Conservative lead.

He also told reporters he heard from voters about how views of the federal Liberalparty could affect the provincial party's vote.

"Every second hand I shook out there, it was, 'No, no, I don't work for the prime minister.In fact, the prime minister and I don't agree on many things,'" he said.

WATCH | It's Day 1 for Lin Paddock as an MHA"

After winning by a landslide, Lin Paddock gets down to business with his first caucus meeting

4 months ago

Duration 1:42

Lin Paddock is Newfoundland and Labradors newest PC MHA, representing the district of Baie Verte-Green Bay. The son of a fisherman, he attended military college, which launched a 30-year career in that field. As he tells the CBCs Terry Roberts, he believes that experience and the other roles hes held will make him a successful representative.

Leading up to next federal election, Bittner said, some Liberals might feel the need to distance themselves from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as his popularity drops.

Furey has been vocal in his opposition toward Trudeau on items like the federal carbon taxand has leftLiberal party logos off branding duringbyelections starting in Januaryin favour of a Team Fureylogo for the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals.

Bittnersaidfederal polls could play a role in the timing of a provincial election.

"The fear might be, you know, if a federal election happens now and polling numbers are correct and the Liberal government's going to lose, then this could mean provincially that that will lead to a potential loss here as well," she said."I think the fear is real on that one in the kind of politics game."

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