Hurricane season begins: 2015 outlook

Not only does June 1mark the beginning of meteorological summer, but it's also the beginning of tropical storm andhurricane season.

As always,the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre has released its prediction for the Atlantic tropical seasonand overall, this season is expected to be quieter than average.

NOAA's forecasters are projecting a70per centchance this tropical storm season will be below average, with a 20 per centchance of a near normal season, and just a 10 per centchance of above normal activity.

NOAA is predicting sixto11 named storms this season, of which three to six are expected to become hurricanes and up to twoof those, major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are categories 3, 4 & 5 on the Saffir-Simpsonscale.

It should also be noted that these numbers do include tropical storm Ana, which jumped out of the gate earlyback in the second week of May.

More predictions

A few other agencies whichissue hurricane forecasts are also predicting quieter than average years

• Colorado State University: 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major
• UKMET Office: 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes
• WSI: 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 1 major
• The Weather Channel (US): 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 1 major

Main factors

This year, a developing El Nio in the eastern tropical Pacific is expected to have a major influence on the tropical Atlantic hurricane season. An El Niois warmer than normal water in the tropical Pacificand when that happens, we often see stronger trade winds and stronger wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

Those stronger winds typically hinder tropical storm development and strengthening, as thunderstorms are blown apart as they rise into higher atmosphere.

The ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are also expected to be near average this summer andfall, as opposed to above average, which should also keep storm numbers lower.

Tropical storm season:N.L. monthly breakdown

Climatology stats show that one to twostorms per yeardirectly affect Atlantic Canada, while two to three threaten our offshore waters.

• Snoddon: Inside the Canadian Hurricane Centre

In terms of when we see storms here in Newfoundland, no month compares to September. Since 1900, 33 named storms have made landfall in Newfoundland.Percentage-wise, more than 40 per centof our named storms have made landfall in September.

Remember: it only takes one

With all of this said, there will certainly be storms firing up in the tropical Atlantic this summer and fall, and as always, we'll have to keep a watchful eye.

As we've seen in the past, it only takes one storm in a season to track into the province and cause damage. It's always a great idea to have an emergency supply kit on hand for your home.

2015 storm names

With the exception of large, destructive storms, like Hurricane Igor or Katrina, whose names are retired, tropical storm and hurricane names are used in rotation and re-used every six years. So if some of thesenames sound familiar, they should. Anyone remember Bill from 2009?

Here are the names for this season:

• Ana
• Bill
• Claudette
• Danny
• Erika
• Fred
• Grace
• Henri
• Ida
• Joaquin
• Kate
• Larry
• Mindy
• Nicholas
• Odette
• Peter
• Rose
• Sam
• Teresa
• Victor
• Wanda