Byelection win puts wind in Liberal sails, says political scientist

A political scientist says turning the district of Conception Bay East-Bell Island red is an important leap forward for the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal party, showing they can win even with federal party polls dropping.

Fred Hutton, a prominent former journalist and first-time political candidate, won the byelectionTuesday night, securing 45.9 per cent of the vote over Progressive Conservative Tina Neary, NDP candidate Kim Churchill and Independent Darryl Harding.

Alex Marland, a political science professor at Acadia University and a formerMemorial University professor, said he was shocked to see Hutton take the win flipping the district from the PCsfor the first time in 23 years.

"It absolutely shouldn't have worked. This should not have flipped, it should have stayed a Conservative or Progressive Conservative seat. And frankly, I think the Progressive Conservatives and Mr. [Tony]Wakeham have a lot of explaining to do," Marland told CBC News on Wednesday, referring to the PC leader.

"If there is a silver lining in it for them, [it's] a lot better to figure this out now and realize that theirstrategy is problematic than it is to figure that out during a general election campaign."

Marland said the win puts more wind in the sails of Premier Andrew Furey ahead of a future general election. An election is set for Oct. 14, 2025, but could be called sooner.

"All of a sudden now, they are going to have a big boost of confidence that maybe they wouldn't have had otherwise," Marland said.

"It also gives them some sense that all is not lost. That just because things are difficult at the federal level with the Trudeau Liberals, that does not mean that, you know, Andrew Furey and the Liberals can't get another government."

Furey told reporters Tuesday night he hasn't given a general election call any thought. Marlandsayshe would need a good, clear reason to do it earlier.

"People can smell opportunism. They know exactly what you're doing, and they'll get angry about it," he said.

"From my perspective, I think what this [win] does is it increases the likelihood of an election sooner rather than later, compared to if they had lost."

'I don't think that any of this loss is on me': Wakeham

On Wednesday afternoon, Wakehamsaid his party had a good candidate in Neary and doesn't see the loss being the result of his leadership.

"I don't think that any of this loss is on me to be perfectly honest with you," Wakehamtold CBC News.

"A lot of people think this was a PC seat. I think it was as much that as it was a David Brazil seat [and]David Brazil had retired. I think in some ways we were the underdogs. The premier lived in the district, there was a well-known candidate running in the district."

WATCH | PC Leader Tony Wakeham says this is why the Liberals won the byelection:

Why did the PCs lose the byelection? Leader Tony Wakeham responds

9 months ago

Duration 1:15

Fred Hutton is the newly elected MHA for the Conception Bay East-Bell Island district. The seat was previously held by the PCs David Brazil, who stepped down in December due to health reasons. On The Go host Anthony Germain presses PC Leader Tony Wakeham about why the seat flipped from Tory blue to Liberal red.

Wakeham said he believes the decisions came down to the promises Hutton and the party made during the campaign, and Hutton's ability to bring concerns directly to Furey. Hutton worked with Furey as an advisor before the campaign.

"A lot of the issues that were being brought up were issues that David Brazil and the PC party had been fighting for," he said. "After four years of not spending any money where it should be spent, during the election they came out and actually said 'We are going to put money to address these issues now, and if you elect our candidate this will happen.'"

Wakeham said the party will now look at what it can do differently in future elections and prepare to give residents a clear alternative to the Liberals.

Download ourfree CBC News appto sign up for push alerts for CBC Newfoundland and Labrador.Click here to visit our landing page.