Ross Wiseman says overdue fiscal update to come next week

Finance Minister Ross Wisemansays he will provide an update by the end of next week on how the volatility in world oil prices is affecting the province's energy dependent coffers.

Wiseman has been delaying the so-called mid-year fiscal update due to a free-fall in oil prices that began in July, and acknowledged during an interview with CBC Radio's On The Go Monday that the province will not meet its fiscal targets for the 2014-15fiscal year.

• Paul Davis says province will weather oil-price crush

The province had projected a$537.9-million deficit this year, but it's now likely this number will be much higher.

In fact, Wisemansaidit's also going to be a "real challenge" to develop a budget for 2015-16 that is consistent with the government's sustainability plan.

That's quite a reversal for a province that, not too long ago, was posting budget surpluses and making headlines with grand infrastructure announcements.

Late last month, the government announced a spending and hiring freeze.

Wiseman described the downward trend in oil prices as "really troubling," with the price for a barrel of Brent Crude dropping to just over US $66 on Monday.

The province set this year's budget on a projection that oil would average US $105.

"We're examining all areas of revenues, all areas of expenditures and trying to forecast what the next three or four months will be taking us to the end of the year, but also forecasting what we will happen next year," Wiseman said.

Province waiting for some stability to return

The mid-year update is intended to give taxpayers an indication of how the province will fair by the end of the fiscal year on March 31, 2015, in comparison to projections on budget day.

Wiseman said he's been unwilling to give an update in recent weeks because of the volatility, with scenarios changing on a daily basis.

"In the interest of a greater degree of accuracy and being fair with everybody in the province, I've decided we should wait a little while before some stability starts to occur," he said.

"That stability may still be a very low number, but at least the fluctuations up and down will have settled and we're able to realistically put a figure on what we can expect to see to the end of the year."

Analysts are painting a dire picture of the oil sector, with a Dec. 5 report by U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley saying oilprices could bottom out at $43 a barrel next year.

That's unwelcome news in a province where oilaccounts for roughly one-third of revenues.

Regardless, Wiseman said he will likely give an update next week, but acknowledged that it may include some "qualifiers" if the current volatility continues.