Retail in flux: How the ride down Stavanger Drive is going to get bumpier

With the impending closure of Rona, Costco's big move to Galwayand a fewother smaller stores closing down, the Stavanger Drive area in St. John'sis about to undergo a transformation.

The question is: how difficult will it be to fill thosemassive spaces left behind?

• 'Devastating news': Union says Rona employees had no idea stores were closing

Next to Costco's massive spaceisanother largely vacant building left over from Target's failed launch in Canada.

And Rona, off Torbay Road and White Rose Drive, is set to close on Jan. 27, leaving another large empty building behind, and employees in the lurch.

"When [the building is]so big, there is limited choicesin terms of what you can fill unless you do what the Avalon Mall has done which is tear it down,"said Tom Cooper, an associate professor at Memorial University's faculty of business.

"That's one option, and then rebuild something more fit for purpose, or alternatively see if you can subdivide."

There are other bigger retail players but St. John's would possibly have to compete with other American cities, Cooper said.

Price Club now known as Costco was the first big business to open its doors onStavangerDrive in St. John's east end, in 1995.

A little further up Stavanger Drive, there is even more retail woe. After years of financial warnings, home decor chains Bowringand Bombay have gone into liquidation mode.

But it's not as dismal as it seems. In fact, a left turn off Stavanger Drive will bring you filled parking lots, new businesses and buildings under construction.

A lot of times, it depends on who the landlord is.- Tom Cooper

Walmart has expanded its selection to offer groceries,and White Rose Drive and Hebron Way have relatively new businesses Mastermind Toys, Little Caesars andOrangetheory Fitness, to name a few.

Nearby, billboards advertise opportunities on land that has not yet been developed.

"A lot of times, it depends on who the landlord is, and how aggressive the landlord wants to be in terms ofthe rents that they're providing and the leases that companies can get, " Coopersaid.

What about Lowe's?

Cooper said he's not surprised that U.S.-based Lowe's decided to close all Ronalocations on the island even newer, busier locations while also shuttering locations across Canada as well as in the States.

"They're at the end of the supply chain. It's not likeNova Scotia and New Brunswickwhere they can bring in materials in and out from specific provinces, and share from there," Cooper said.

In 2016, U.S. home improvement chain Lowe's boughtRona, then headquartered in Quebec,in a dealvalued at $3.2 billion.

What are the chances Lowe's will eliminate unionized Ronato make way for Lowe's branded stores?

Cooper's cynical side while speculative at this point thinks it may be a way to get rid of the union. But he said, Lowe's is known to close stores.

"They look at profitability, they look at individualstores and how well they're doing. That is their business model. They run a very tight financial ship," Cooper said.

When Lowe's took over Rona, it was interested in rural stores especially where there were no other hardware competition. In the Stavangerneighbourhood alone,there is plenty of competition from Canadian Tire and Kent.

Cooper describes the current business climate as "shaky."

"There [are]some strong indicators that the economy will be improving in the next couple of years," he said.

"It really depends on where these companies are in terms of the life cycle, in terms of the industry life cycle, especially in the oil and gas industry."

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