NLWeekend Briefing

If the economy is slumping, what does the Avalon Mall know that we don't?

With a few dozen new tenants in the wings, Newfoundland and Labrador's largest mall says it will continue to be fully occupied.

With a few dozen tenants in the wings, the mall says it will continue to be full

John Gushue CBC News Posted: Dec 08, 2018 4:30 AM EST | Last Updated: December 8, 2018

The Avalon Mall is, shall we say, in slings.

On one end, the mall hasopened its new parking structure, on the north side of O'Leary Avenue. It has room for 650 cars, which is more vehicles than you'll find in some small towns, and it doesn't include the other lots that surround the mall.

At the other end, though, where Sears used to have its largely dormant and rather huge space, it looks a bit like a war zone. Much of that wing has been torn down. It may have been part of the original mall that opened in the '60s but there's no sentimentality about its heritage.

It's gone. And coming soon will be a whole new design that mall owners Crombie REIT expect will pull in shoppers for years and years to come.

A year ago, there seemed to be a cloud over the mall. Sears which had all the charm and vim of a cellblock by the time it closed was on the way out, and it was unclear what, if anything, could replace it.

Is the Avalon Mall having a midlife crisis?

When I wrote about it a year ago, I noted that stores have been coming and going at the Avalon Mall pretty much since the day it opened, and that only a handful of first-generation retailers are still around to ring up your purchases.

It turns out that Crombie, which runs shopping centres near and far (its local properties include Sobeyscomplexes, plazas on Torbayand Topsail roads, and Woodgate Plaza, to name a few), has had big ambitions for the mall.

An artist's conception depicts the look that Avalon Mall owner Crombie REIT has in mind for the space outside the former Sears location. (Crombie REIT )

The Sears departure just cleared the deck for the makeover that's been underway for months. Once the Sears space is trimmed, Crombie is planning to build in front of it, with units that will range in size. The artist's conception shows what seems like a courtyard vibe.

It looks like the mall won't be starving for new tenants.

A few months ago, a Crombieofficial told a trade publication that when its $54.5-million upgrade is done (that's a lot of millions of dollars, by the way), the mall will continue to be as full which, somehow, it's always been, through good and bad economic cycles.

"For the last decade we've basically been operating at a zero vacancy rate," Marcel Elliott told Retail Insider.

"We're really the only centre in the province. So adding 36 sounds like a lot but we've got a waiting list."

A waiting list. (That said, Crombie's website lists four potential leasing opportunities at the Avalon Mall, from a major space to one of those kiosk-like spaces in the Marketplace area.)

There's no word yet on who exactly will be taking up new space, but it's clear that the department store anchor on which malls have relied on for years past is over.

Mall owner is counting on economic growth

Intrigued, I poked around Crombie's website and looked at demographic data and market information that it supplies to potential tenants.

Among the things I found: Crombieexpects the population of its catchment area (extending to a radius of 20 kilometres) to grow. The population in that radius was almost 184,000 six years ago; by 2022, Crombie projects a population of 208,250.

Crombie REIT says three dozen new tenants will be setting up shop inside the Avalon Mall. (Crombie REIT )

Crombienotes that there are more families with kids than families without in driving distance of the mall (but not, it's worth noting, in walking distance).

The company also expects more households to be built, too.

Hmm.

These are not the numbers of a rosy political speech; it's just a chart in a packet for people weighing business decisions.

The conventional wisdom I hear from lots of people is that the economy is in a slump. There are certainly worrisome indicators: the unemployment rate has increased. Housing values took a dent.

But the folks who own the mall, and who lease there, are all banking on a set of figures that present a different view of the economy.

Something to think about as you navigate the crowds during the busiest month of the year.

That's a big catch for newcomers

One morning this week, I was craving I mean, really craving a coffee as I was on the busto work, so I took a detour and stopped at the Tim Hortonsin the Aquarena. Just being in the line put me in mind of a story we did some years ago about a young Jamaican student at MUN, whose singing was just infectious.

Click the video below to seeour 2011 report on MachelRayner

Coffee singer

13 years ago

2:31

Machel Rayner brings more to his job at a St. John's Tim Hortons than just serving coffee

The weirdest coincidence happened when I got to the office: I learned that Ariana Kellandhad been in touch with MachelRayner and had a burner of a story. Arianahad simply beencurious about what Rayner was up to, and was astonished to learn he hadto leave.

Ariana's story, which we published Thursday, turned out to be one of the most widely read CBC stories in the country that day.

At the nub: many people could not believe Rayner, who has clearly found a home for himself here, is being told to leave because he violated a rule of the Newfoundland and Labrador Nominee Program by taking a job in Halifax. The idea of the program is that you get sponsored to stayhere, and are expected to stay (thus fulfilling the long-term goal of bringing up the population).

Machel Rayner, 31, will continue to work in Newfoundland and Labrador until a hearing in January. (Bruce Tilley/CBC)

Rayner, who is a personal trainer, lost a chunk of his income when his employer cut back on a program.

Readprevious editions of Weekend Briefing

Losing hours or income? Well, that happens all the time to plenty of people in the workforce in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Rayner, though, got severely penalized. Which made us think about options for people in that situation: would it have been preferable for him to stay and, say, become dependent on social services?

It's hard to see how that would be a preferable option, for either side.

'Newfoundlanders are God's gift,' says Jamaican-born trainer after outpouring of support

In any event and no doubt because of the wide exposure Ariana'sreporting received MachelRayner now has his work permit reinstated. (Andhe got some job offers, too.)

Quote of the week

Jerome Kennedy was minister of Natural Resources when the controversial Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project was sanctioned in 2012. (Terry Roberts/CBC)

"I felt surprised. I felt disappointed. I felt a certain degree of anger too, sir."

Jerome Kennedy, testifying this week at the Muskrat Falls inquiry on his reaction to facts presented to him during a meeting with inquiry counsel

View of the week

Mark Graytakes some spectacular and wonderful photos around the Bonavista Peninsula, where he lives with his family. For the one above, he saw some impressive splashes as the waves hit the shoreline near Dungeon Road.

Such a great photo.

It's one of the great images you'll find in this week's audience gallery.

We're always delighted to see photos from around the province. Send them (with your name and caption information) to nlphotos@cbc.ca.

Oh. One morethingabout the mall!

Before we wrap up, as it were, here's a shameless plug. A bunch of us at the CBCwill be wrapping gifts next Friday at the Avalon Mall, as part of the #cbcfeednlcampaign. Get your gifts wrapped at no charge although donationsare being taken for the Community Food Sharing Association.

Hope to see you there.

Enjoy your weekend!

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