Imposing wage package bill won't fix McNeil's problems, says Graham Steele

For the second week in a row, the big question in Nova Scotia politics is: What now?

Last week it was the teachers.

This week it's the civil servants, who have voted to reject essentially the same deal already turned down by the teachers.

A little over a year ago, it looked like Stephen McNeil had triumphed in his labour-relations agenda.

Today it's a different story. The Nova Scotia Teachers Union membership fought back against both the government and the NSTU executive which had recommended the deal.

Stiffened resolve

That stiffened the resolve of the Nova Scotia Government & General Employees Union executive, who first negotiated a deal and then recommended their membership reject it.

But Stephen McNeil is not done. This is a setback for him. It is not a defeat. Not yet.

The McNeil government has been smart and focused in its labour-relations agenda.

They started by passing essential-services legislation. That ensured they would not face the sort of strikes that hobbled the Savage, Hamm, MacDonald and Dexter governments.

Then they drastically reduced the number of health-care bargaining units.

Bill 148 wasn't needed with teachers

Next they passed a law, known as Bill 148, to impose their wage package. Cleverly, they held Bill 148 in reserve. The message to the unions: we will bargain with you, but if the bargaining goes sideways, we're going to get our way regardless.

The McNeil government did not need Bill 148 to deal with the teachers. That's because teachers are not entitled to mandatory arbitration if there is a contract impasse.

Arbitration is possible, but only if both sides agree and the premier will not agree.

But the McNeil government does need Bill 148 to deal with the civil servants.

Under the Civil Service Collective Bargaining Act, civil servants are not permitted to strike. In exchange, a contract impasse can be sent to arbitration by either side.

Mutual agreement would be lovely but is not required.

NSGEU could force arbitration

There are lots of jigs and reels along the path to arbitration. The parties could try again to negotiate a deal. They could seek conciliation. The Labour Board could tell the parties to try harder before an arbitrator is appointed.

But the bottom line is that the NSGEU can force arbitration, and that is exactly what Premier McNeil does not want.

McNeil has been clear that he does not want a "third party" his derisory term for an arbitrator making financial decisions for the province.

Bill 148 ensures McNeil will get his own way.

5 cabinet signatures required

McNeil can invoke Bill 148 at any time, through a process called proclamation.

It only requires the signature of five cabinet ministers, which is something he can obtain in a few minutes. He could do it today, this week, next month, or next year.

The premier has publicly said Bill 148 can be proclaimed selectively, on a union-by-union basis. I don't believe the bill allows him to do that, but in the end it may not matter.

The legislation would fix wages for four years, freeze a retirement bonus called a service award for existing employees and eliminate it for new hires.

• Legislation to impose contract on teachers has just 3 clauses

Teachers could still strike

But Bill 148 doesn't settle everything. Whether it applies to teachers or not, the government is not imposing a professional agreement on teachers.

The bill the government was going to introduce during an emergency session Dec. 5 and then abandoned would have imposed a professional agreement. Any strike would have become illegal.

Even if Bill 148 is proclaimed on teachers, they can still strike.

Don't get me wrong: I don't think a strike will happen. Now that teachers have won public opinion in the wake of the school closure fiasco, I think it would be a strategic error to trigger a full-blown strike.

What's most likely is that teachers will continue their work-to-rule for a very long time.

Could play out in next election

This is not turning out the way Stephen McNeil had hoped.

With Bill 148, he can snap his fingers and get his way on wages and the service award.

Any constitutional challenge to Bill 148 will take years to be resolved.

The recent BC Teachers' Federation case, which has some parallels to the situation in Nova Scotia today, took 14 years to get to the Supreme Court of Canada.

He will keep the balanced budget he so keenly wants to take into the next provincial election.

But the anger of teachers and civil servants will simmer and simmer, and they may take their revenge at the ballot box.