NDP's Halifax Needham byelection victory a warning to Stephen McNeil's Liberals

If Premier Stephen McNeil was still thinking about sending Nova Scotians to the polls this fall, Tuesday's results in the Halifax Needham byelection should give him pause.

On the face of it, the New Democrats' winin a riding they have held since 1998 might come as no surprise.After all, Halifax Needham is a riding that electedMaureen MacDonald six times. In four of those occasions, MacDonaldwon with a majority of ballots cast.

• NDP'sLisa Roberts wins Halifax Needham byelection

But it was a close contest in 2013. In that election, MacDonald took 44 per cent of the vote. The Liberals' Chris Poole came up 277 votes short with 40.4 per cent.

Liberals had a good chance of winning

Simple math suggested thatthe Liberals should have had a very good chance of winning the riding. They pulled off a few upsets in supposedNDPfortresses in Halifax during the last election three years ago.

The Liberalsalso currently have a wide lead ahead of the province's other parties, according to the most recent pollsMcNeil's party is 44 points ahead ofthe second-place PC party.Back when the Liberals narrowly lostHalifax Needham in 2013, they won 46 per cent of the vote acrossNova Scotia.

So that riding should be one the Liberals would comfortably win when the party stands at about 62 per cent support in the polls today.

Liberalshare of vote shrank

No polls were published for the byelection campaign in Halifax Needham. But applying that kind of province-wideswing to the ridingwould have given itto the Liberals by about 20 points.

Turnout was just 32.5 per cent, but the Liberals lost almost twice as many individual votes as the New Democrats did

Instead, Lisa Roberts of theNDPtook 51 per cent of the vote, beating out the Liberals' Rod Wilson, who took 33.6 per cent.The Progressive Conservatives' AndyArsenaultcaptured 12.1 per cent, while ThomasTrappenbergof the Greens took 3.3 per cent.

Compared to 2013, the NDP's share of the vote increased by seven points. The Liberal share dropped by 6.8 points.

Turnout was just 32.5 per cent, but the Liberals lost almost twice as many individual votes as the New Democrats did: 1,453 to873.

Good news for the NDP

Roberts' share of the vote doesn'tcompare to what MacDonald managed in 2006 and 2009, when she received more than60 per cent support.But Roberts'performance was on par with where the NDP stood in Halifax Needham in 2003.

Relatively speaking, that's good news for the New Democrats. In 2003, the party captured 31 per cent of the vote provincewide and formed the Official Opposition. Those are farbetter prospects than what the polls are suggesting if a snap election wascalled today.

Butthe numbers do not suggestthe PCs and Greensare poised to do any better than they did in 2013.

What it means for the next election

Though byelection results should be treated with caution particularly when turnout is so low the results do suggest that the Liberals can't take a landslide victory for granted in the next general election. Halifax Needham indicatespockets of support for the opposition still exist, and there are enough voters in these pockets to elect opposition MLAs.

• Opinion:Win or lose, Liberals win in Halifax Needham byelection

With such a wide lead in the polls, a Liberal sweep in the next election isnot out of the question. But the New Democrats over-achievedin Halifax Needham and the Liberals cameup well short of where they should have been.So Stephen McNeil would be wise to dampen any thoughts of an early election call.

The Liberals don't need a riding like Halifax Needham to secure another majority government. They do, however, need to have confidence that their strong numbers in the opinion polls will turn into real votes at the ballot box.