How Stephen McNeil's Liberals won a slim majority government

StephenMcNeil'sLiberals were reduced to a narrow majority government in Tuesday's provincial election in Nova Scotia as their vote dipped throughout the province, giving both JamieBaillie'sProgressive Conservatives and GaryBurrill'sNew Democrats a boost in seats.

But while the polls underestimated the strength of the PC vote, the Liberals were able to hold on to enough seats in Halifax and the mainland to avoid dropping into minority territory.

At 27 seats, the Liberals ended up just northof the 26 seats needed for a majority government, dropping sevenseats from where they stood at dissolution at the beginning of the four-week election campaign. The PCs gained sevenseats and the NDP despite dropping in the province-wide popular vote picked up two.

One seat was vacant at dissolution while another was represented by an independent MLA.

Losses in Dartmouth, Cape Breton

The most significant seat changes occurred in two parts of the province.

In theHalifax area,the Liberals dropped fiveseats, threegoing to the PCs and twoto the NDP.

On Cape Breton Island, the Liberals fell threeseats as their popular vote plummeted by about 16 points. The PCs were the biggest beneficiaries, gaining twoseats and roughly 18points in the popular vote.

Though the Liberals' support fell in most parts of the province, the party still managed to hold on to many of its seats in some parts ofthe Halifax regionas well as on the mainland outside of the HRM. They alsopickedup a seat from the NDP on the South Shore.

PCs beat, NDP under-perform poll expectations

Public opinion polls suggestedthe Liberals were the favourites to win the most seats, but were unclear whether the party would be able to obtain a majority government or not. Though the polls overall were close to the mark,a smallunderestimation in the PC votecut the margin enough to keep the outcome in doubt until after midnight.

The three final polls of the campaign by Corporate Research Associates, Forum Research andMainstreetResearch pegged Liberal support at between 38 and 41 per cent, very close to the final tally of 39.6per cent.

But the PCs were estimated at between 31 and 35 per cent, putting all three pollsters below the Tories' results of 35.7per cent. The New Democrats were also overstated at between 22 and 24 per cent, rather than their 21.4per cent score.

The errors were relatively small, particularly forMainstreetand Forum, which were in the field up to the last twodays of the campaign. But the Liberal leads of eight to 10 points found byMainstreetand CRA, respectively, would have delivered the Liberals a more comfortablemajority than what occurred.

Liberals hold off strategic voters?

At the regional level, the polls also painted a relatively accurate picture of the race, with the Liberals ahead in metro Halifax and the PCs favoured on Cape Breton Island, with the PCs and Liberals showing strength in different parts of the mainland.

The slight province-wide overestimation of the NDP and underestimation of the PCs, however, raises the question of whetherBaillie'srequest for New Democratic voters'strategic support to defeat the Liberals was heard in some NDP quarters.

If so, it might have helped the Progressive Conservatives gain a few extra seats, whittling the Liberals down to the slimmest of majorities. But by holding off both the PCs and the NDP in just enough ridings,particularly in Halifax and the mainland,McNeilis the first Nova Scotia premier to secure the re-election of a majority government since John Buchanan in 1988.