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Hurricane Lee looking more likely to impact the Maritimes

CBC Meteorologist Ryan Snoddon has the latest on the storm and its expected track this week.

Storm appears set to bring rain, wind and potential storm surge this weekend

Hurricane Lee as seen by NASA's modis satellite on September 11th 2023
Hurricane Lee as seen by NASA's Modis satellite on Monday Sept. 11, 2023 (NASA Worldview)

Hurricane Lee continues to be a major hurricane tracking west northwest through the tropical Atlantic.

The storm is expected to slow to a snail's pace over the next few days, which makes forecasting a bit more difficult and leaves a bit more uncertainty than usual.

While Hurricane Lee moves towards the Maritimes, it's not looking like 'Fiona 2.0'

1 year ago
Duration 3:12
Meteorologist Ryan Snoddon says Hurricane Lee is looking like a widespread, slow-moving system that will begin on Saturday and continue into Sunday. But he says it's unlikely to cause as much destruction as last year's Hurricane Fiona.

That said, there is now fairly solid agreement that Lee will make a turn northward on Wednesday. Followingthat turn, the storm will increase in forward speed, however it will begin to weaken.

By late week, the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Centre has the storm moving into our region as a Category 1 hurricane. Lee is then expected totransition to a post-tropical low as it makes landfall in the Maritimes on Saturday, with tropicalstorm force winds.

A map shows the track of a hurricane, represented by a red symbol, going upward toward the Maritime provinces.
The National Hurricane Centre track shows Lee turning north before heading toward the Maritimes late this week. (Ryan Snoddon/CBC)

The Franklin factor

We can be thankful for Hurricane Franklin. Not only did the storm ultimately stay offshore from the Maritimes, it also churned up the waters of the Atlantic ocean as it tracked west and north of Bermuda.

That churning of the ocean helped to upwell cooler ocean temperatures from below the surface and as a result, what was warmer water a couple ofweeks ago, is now below the critical 26.5 Ctemperature needed to fuel tropical storms.

Hurricane Franklin has long dissipated, however looks set to have lasting impact on Lee as it moves northward this week.
Hurricane Franklin has long dissipated, but looks set to have a lasting impact on Lee as it moves northward this week. (Ryan Snoddon/CBC)

That subtle difference in sea surface temperatures, as well as increasing wind shear, looks set to be significant in Lee's weakening as it moves northward this week.

Lee impacts this weekend

While the details will be ironed out over the next few days, this storm is looking more and more likely to impact the Maritimeswithrain, gusty winds and a possible storm surge this weekend.

Folks should be preparing for a long duration event. This storm will be moving slowly, and so the impacts are likely to last 24 to 48 hours, beginning Saturday, continuing through Sunday and lingering into Monday.

This could be problematic, especially when it comes to the winds and potential for power outages to add up.

Storm kit essentials for the hurricane season

1 year ago
Duration 1:29
Nova Scotia's Emergency Management Office suggests being prepared for at least 72 hours without power. Here's what you should have.

The storm will be quite large when it moves in and will grow larger in scale as it transitions to post-tropical. That transition will spread the impacts of rain and wind further from the centre of the storm and so it's important not to focus too much on the direct path over the next few days.

Given the widespread anxiety in the region, I think it's important to note that this storm will not be Fiona 2.0. The storm we saw a year ago was a historic event with many differences from the one shaping up this week.

That said, Lee is looking more likely to impactthe region and folks should be preparing their property and making sure emergency kits are ready to go over the next few days.

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