Nova Scotia enrolment numbers show population drop in rural areas

First the first time, Nova Scotians are seeing detailed projections of student enrolment and school usage over the next decade.

The bleak forecasts chronicle the depopulation underway in rural Nova Scotia and have the province's education minister warning communities and parents.

"The data tells me that a)we have the declining enrolment, b)that we have a lot of excess square footage around the province and that boards do have some tough decisions they have to make," Karen Casey told CBC on Wednesday.

Seven of Nova Scotia's eight school boards have met an April 30 provincial government deadline to compile and publiclyrelease long-range outlooks.

Funding tied to enrolment

With the exception of Halifax and the Conseil scolaire acadien provincial (francophone),all reporting school boards are predicting student population drops of sevenper centto 18 per centbetween 2015 and 2024.

"The message to parentsis you have an opportunity to find out now exactly what your board's statistics are like and what your board's long-range plan looks like," Casey said.

"We believe if boards have to go through a long-range plan, they have to prepare it, they have to present it at a public board meeting, then every community knows what the board is looking at ... excess square footage, crowdingsituations, all those kind of details the public deserves to know."

The numbers matter because provincial funding is tied to enrolment.

The sharpest declines are expected in Southwest Nova Scotia and the Strait area.

In the seaside town of Lockeport, Shelburne County, the local high school saw enrolment drop 40 per cent in the last decade and a further 15 per cent drop is expected in the next next decade.

Sharp declines

Parent Tim Garren chairs the Lockeport Regional High School Advisory Committee.

"It is concerning that they are looking at us and looking at the whole province as it's declining but yet that's true of everybody," he says.

Lockeport is in the Tri-County Regional School Board which, overall, is forecasting a 14-per-cent enrolment drop by 2024.

Right now 10 of its 25 schools have a utilization rate of under 50 per cent.

It's not the worst off. The Strait Regional School Board is forecasting an 18-per-cent enrolment drop.

Retired educator Kent Balish says the stakes are high.

"If they lose the school they will lose everything. There will really be nothing left," he says.