Reality check: Are the Tory claims on job creation accurate?

Job creation has been a hot topic on the election campaign trail the past few days and while all the parties are trying to win your vote by promising to bring more jobs to Nova Scotia, the Progressive Conservatives are making a bold promise with their plan.

"Our plan gets Nova Scotians working again," says Leader Jamie Baillie. "Our plan creates 20,000 new jobs over the next four years."

That's a big promise. So CBC News asked the Tories how they came up with that number.

They say their tax cuts reducing the HST, cutting the small business tax and freezing power rates will put $1.6 billion back into the economy over the next four years.

Baillie, who has a background in finance, claims it is "general economic theory" that every $80,000 in economic activity creates one job. The Progressive Conservatives divided the $1.6 billion in savings by $80,000 in economic activity and came up with 20,000 jobs.

We ran those numbers by some economists and each one said it's nowhere near that simple.

Donald Savoie is the Canada Research Chair in Public Administration and Governanceat the Universit de Moncton. Savoie said no politician no matter what party they represent can make that kind of job creation promise with any kind of certainty.

It is what I would call silly season.- Donald Savoie

"You can't isolate tax cuts and say that's going to create X number of jobs," said Savoie. "It doesn't work like that."

Savoie said there are many other factors that go into job creation: the health of the overall economy, the state of the U.S economy, the value of the Canadian dollar, interest rates, innovation and consumer confidence.

"To simply isolate one part of that and say this will create jobs, is simply not on," said Savoie.

NDP touting record

Of course, the Progressive Conservatives aren't the only ones talking job numbers.

The New Democratic Party has repeatedly trumpeted its job creation record during this campaign, saying there are now 6,600 more jobs in Nova Scotia since they took power.

If you look at the raw numbers they are right overall employment is up. But that increase is all part-time work.

There are now 8,500 more part-time jobs in Nova Scotia than in June 2009 when the NDP was elected, but that's offset by a substantial drop in full-time employment. There are 1,900 fewer full-time jobs since the NDP was elected.

So, with every party tossing around numbers like popcorn during this campaign, how do voters make sense of it all?

"When we are in the middle of an election campaign, it is what I would call silly season. You will hear all kinds of claims," said Savoie. "They simply don't add up."

Savoie said a good rule of thumb is to take claims like job creation and divide those by five, and when politicians tell you much a promise will cost, multiply that by five.

"That's history speaking," said Savoie. "That's not just me."