Crowded field in Orlans could yield election squeaker

The men and womenrunning to representOrlanson Ottawa city council will be splitting the vote 17 ways onOct. 22. That has some wondering, what's the bare minimum a candidate would need to get elected?

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In the 2014 election, only 38per cent of eligible voters in Orlanscast a ballot. The popular incumbent, Bob Monette, reclaimed his seat with a solid mandate backed by 10,662 voters, or 75 per cent of those who turned out on election day.

Monette isn't running for re-election, and it's highly unlikely his successor will enjoy a similar majority.Monettehas promised to stay neutral, and with fewer than six weeks to go no clear front-runner has emerged.

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If last election's voter turnout is repeated, a candidate could theoretically take the ward with as few as 840 votes, normally fringe territory.

Turnout trending down

Of course, the vote won't be split so evenly among all 17 candidates. Nor will voter turnout in the ward necessarily be so low, though that's the way it's trending: it was 43% in 2010, and 51% in 2006.

Some candidates make better impressions thanothers by knocking on doors, attending community events and performing well in debates. Some enjoy local name recognition. Some have more to spend on signs and other campaign materials.

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Two registered candidates say they've abandoned theircampaigns, butDoug Feltmateand Louise Soyezwill appear on the ballot nonetheless.

The majority of the 17 people vying to representOrlansappear genuinely interested in the job.

ColumGrove-WhiteofOttawa 123, an organization that promotes ranked ballots, believes voter turnout will rise in Orlansbecause so many candidates are reaching out to residents this campaign.

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Grove-White predicts the next councillor for Orlans will win with 15 or 20 per cent of the vote.

It's happened before, and candidates tend to flock to races where there's no incumbent running.

In 2014, Coun. GeorgeDarouzewas on a ballot of11 candidates vying to replace Doug Thompson. Even with Thompson's endorsement, Darouzewas elected with only 1,783 votes, or 21 per cent.

It's not always such a squeaker. CatherineMcKenneyfaced off against 10 rivalsin Somerset ward, but won handily with nearly 4,000 votes, or 40 per cent. River ward saw a 10-way race to replace MariaMcRae, but RileyBrockingtonpulled in a solid 37 per cent of the vote.

Vote-splitting fears

Orlans resident IanGadboisfollows municipal politics the way his friendsfollow the goings-on on Parliament Hill.

He's been trying to research the candidates and narrow down his choice, butfears others might not take the same time to get it right.

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Gadbois also worries about a split vote.

"You could have an unqualified person ...who doesn't have the credentials,who sneaks up the middle and wins with a very small number of votes. That would make me unhappy."

Grove-Whiteof Ottawa 1-2-3 said a ranked ballot system would ease that worry.

Ranked choice voting allows voters to numbercandidates in order of preference on their ballot. If no candidate wins a majority, low-ranked candidates are eliminated and the vote is redistributed until a winner is declared.

The system, which is used in other jurisdictions and is similar to the method Canadian political parties use to elect their leaders, is designed to ensure no candidate is handed a mandate without a significant level of support.

"With ranked choice voting you don't have this problem of vote-splitting," Grove-White said. "Certainly it's more reflective of the will of the voters."