City could see up to 4,000 new COVID-19 cases daily, OPH says

A tool used by Ottawa Public Health (OPH) to predict how COVID-19 could spread throughthe community suggests the city could see as many as 4,000 new cases per day, Ottawa's top doctor said Tuesday.

"We have seen models previously, [models] that are evolving, where you could see up to 4,000 cases a day at the peak," medical officer of health Vera Etches said Tuesday. "That's a long way from where we are now, and I hope we don't reach that."

Since Ottawa'sfirst case of COVID-19 was confirmed on March 11, the number has risen to just 27, an average of fewer than two new cases per day. But Etches has been clear that that's almost certainlya small fraction of the true number infected.

"Most people infected with COVID-19 will have mild illness. They'll be able to cope at home," Etches said. "We want to keep supporting people to do that and we're hoping all the measures that people are taking right now, by limiting their contact with others, will drop down that number."

Unclear where we are on the curve

The tool used to predict how COVID-19 will spread was developed at the University of Toronto and was previously used for H1N1planning in 2009.

Etches said OPH can't yet predictwhen the pandemic will peak in Ottawa. In other cities, the virus has taken a month or more to ramp up before it beginsto decline, she said.

"I don't know where we are exactly on that curve, on that timeline," she said.

In preparation of a surge in new cases, The Ottawa Hospital says it's working to increase the number of intensive care beds at both the Civic and General campuses from the current 32 or 33beds at each location to 75 each.

In additionto the assessment centre at Brewer Arena in Old Ottawa South, two more centres are planned for the city, one in the west end and one in the east end. One of those new assessment centresis expected to open this week, Etches said.

OPH in talks with grocery stores

The modelling shows whypeople must continue to practise "physical distancing" the term OPH prefers oversocial distancing because it's more clearly understood, Etches said.

For many people now, one of the few trips outside the home is to the grocery store, so OPH is trying to make it safer for both shoppers and staff, she said.

Etches is floating the idea of asking residents who live at even-number addresses to shop only on even-number daysof the month, and people with odd-number addresses to shop on odd-number days.

"We're in conversation with grocery stores to get their opinion about whether that would help," she said.

• What you need to know about COVID-19 in Ottawa on Tuesday, March 24

Etches said OPH plans to begin telephone surveys soon to assess how well residents are complying with physical distancing and self-isolation.

The agency is exploring other possible ways of tracking compliance using electronic means, but Etches said the use of data or cellphone tracking would be done in an open and transparent way that respects people's privacy.