More health restrictions likely coming to counter Omicron, experts say

A recent spike in cases in Kingston, Ont., which has made its COVID-19 infection rate the worst in the province, will arrive in Ottawa soon, according to infectious disease specialists.

"Omicron is going to present some very serious challenges for everyone in Canada very soon," said Doug Manuel, a senior scientist with The Ottawa Hospital who models local COVID-19 numbers. "It's going to be coming very quickly."

The Kingston area health unit hasthe highest rate of COVID-19 infection in Ontariowith over 400 cases per one million peopleper day. Ottawa Public Health currently sits around75.

Manuelexpects Ottawa to see similarrapidincreases in COVID-19 infectionsin the coming days, driven largely bythe highly transmissible Omicron variant.

So far, the health unithas confirmed eight cases of the newvariant in Ottawa, but thenumber ofknown COVID-19 cases in the city has nearly doubled in the last 10 days.

Severity unknown, but hospitals still at risk

Manuel said the severity of Omicron is still unknown, but its high transmissibility means it could stillpose a challenge to local hospitals.

"We still can't satisfy ourselves that severity isn't going to be a problem," Manuel said.

TheOmicron variant has a doubling rate of three days, according to the latest update from the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. Cases of the delta variant, by comparison, take 34 days to double.

That extremely high rate of transmissionmeans Omicron would have to be "a lot less" severe than delta for the health-care system to not be affected by this current surge,Manuel added.

Public health restrictions likely to follow

Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the division of infectious disease at Queen's University, said hefavours strictpublic health restrictions to ensure hospitals and intensive care units aren'toverwhelmed.

"Ifyou're going to bring in measures, you need to bring them in quickly and forcefully to try and really stem the tide," he said.

The Kingston-area public health unitissuedgathering limitsand restrictions on bars and restaurants effective Monday evening.

The rollout of health restrictions in Windsor, Sudbury and now Kingston is a "good indication" other health units across the province will follow suit, Manuel said.

"If you've been in a very good situation, you can't rest on your laurels,"he said."We're in a different part of the pandemic."