'Victims of our own success': Kingston goes from leading to lagging in latest COVID-19 wave

After navigating the first three waves of the pandemic with relative ease, Kingston's COVID-19 numbers are among Ontario's worst during the fourth.

The currentwave is coursing througha region in eastern Ontariowhere the early pandemic response stood out as a bright spot. Kingston and its surrounding communities consistently reported fewer cases than much of the province and didn't record a single COVID-19 deathin 2020.

Some experts pointed to Kingston'solder,dispersedpopulation and its small, domestic airport, butothers identified decisive actionfrom the local public health authority.

"We haven't had a tough wave until now," Kingston Mayor Bryan Paterson said.

Kingston epidemiologists and politicians are saying those early victories may be costing the city now.

"We really are victims of our own success," Paterson said.

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TheKingston, Frontenac, Lennox and Addington Public Health Unit currentlyhas one of the worst COVID-19 case ratesin the province. Over the past two weeks, its nearly 250 cases per 100,000 people is almost four times the rate inOttawa. Of those cases,local health officials suspectmost arethe omicron variant.

In response, the health unit has tightened restrictions. Itdropped the indoor gathering limitto 10 people in late November,issued a letter of instructionon Thursday requiring businesses to conduct more stringent vaccination screening, and on Fridayintroduced a 10-day self-isolation and testing requirementfor close contacts of confirmed cases.

'A pattern with pandemics'

"There's a pattern with pandemics from history that areas that do really well early in the pandemic can be hit especially hard in later waves," Paterson said.

A similar pattern emerged during the Spanish Flu in the early 20th-century, according to Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the division of infectious disease at Queen's University.

Cities that suffered under early waves, Evans said, did relatively well in later ones and the reverse was true as well. He said the same principle may apply to Kingston.

The vaccination rate in Kingston and its surrounding communities is relatively high, withmore than 90 per centof its eligible population having received its first dose.

However, lowerinfections rates in previous waves means less of Kingston's unvaccinated population has been exposed to the virus, and could mean thehighly transmissibleomicron variantmay spread more rapidly, Evans said.

Behaviourcould also play a role, he added. Low numbers can bring complacency toward public health recommendations.

Game has changed for restrictions, mayor says

Paterson said despite surging cases, public health officials are "doing whatever they can" to keep schools and workplaces open.

"The game has changed," Paterson said. "It's more about targeted measures and looking at exactly where the spread is."

He stressed the importance of workers staying home when they're sick and further encouraged vaccination.

"Public health's point of view is we're not going to impose restrictions blanketacross the community," he said.

Evansfavoursa firmer approachand expects public health to bring in tighter restrictions this week.

"My view is that we need to get strict," hesaid. "We need to go very quickly into doing regional measures across the southeast."