Limited COVID-19 data means unpredictable January, experts say

People should prepare for an unpredictable month asthe Omicron variant of COVID-19 outpaces the ability of public health officials to test and report cases, but the turn of the calendar could signal better days ahead, experts say.

Ontario made significant testing changes at the end of December because of the surge in Omicron variant cases. Only high-risk individuals who are symptomatic or who are at risk of severe illness fromCOVID-19 can get aPCRtest,while others should assume they haveCOVIDif they have symptoms.

The lack of data will impact the decision making for public health officials andhealth measures may need to be adjusted rapidly, said Doug Manuel, asenior scientist with The Ottawa Hospital who trackslocalCOVID-19 numbers, in a discussion on CBCRadio'sOttawa Morning.

"We're just not able to have the level of surveillance that's ideal and so during January it's going to feel different, we're not going to have as much information as we've had in the past," said Manuel.

"We anticipate this might be the most difficult month, for many people, of the pandemic."

This new chapter of the pandemic is not like March 2020, despite the large-scale exhaustion and frustration, he added, as Manuel remainsoptimistic most will avoid severe illness with the increase in booster vaccinations.

"This is the first time I've felt that we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel."

Troy Day, a member of Ontario's COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, saysthe lack of clinical testing makes projecting the spread of the virus nearly impossible.

"This is lousy from an epidemiological standpoint, but I think it was also inevitable given the explosive growth of Omicron," said Day,who is also a mathematician at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont.

WATCH: Why wastewater data might soon be more important than COVID-19 case counts:

Why wastewater data might soon be more important than COVID-19 case counts

3 years ago

Duration 0:53

Tyson Graber, co-lead investigator on the COVID-19 wastewater project in Ottawa, says wastewater data may fill the gap in official case counts as the Omicron variant outpaces the ability of public health officials to test and report cases.

Wastewater testing carries more significance

Public health officials in Ottawa could lean on wastewater testingfor the prevalence ofCOVID-19 in the community, but that isn't a perfect substitute. For example, you can't pinpoint demographics for cases or conduct contact tracing.

"It's really a complementary measure, to complement clinical testing, [but] clinical testing is still really the gold standard," saidTysonGraber, co-lead investigator on the wastewater project in Ottawa.

Grabersaid the wastewater could still mitigate some of the stress caused by missingcase data so the city knows whether the amount of COVID-19 is increasing or decreasing in the community.

"The wastewater is really going to be a good indicator for, not justpublic health, but also the person on the street, the individual who needs to assess their risk," he said.