Battle lines drawn over Ottawa's suburban sprawl

Andy Lee likes the smell of a new house.

That clean, "just built" whiff still lingers inside the grey brick home he and his parents moved into last summer onthe very edge of suburbanOttawa.

"I heard LRT is coming in a few years, so if I get a job downtown, it's more convenient for me. That's why I chose this location," Lee explained.

Lee recently left his job and moved to Ottawa from Toronto, where he didn't see a future for himself not with the steep rents. He's not alone.

According to the city's own middle-of-the-road estimate, Ottawa's population will grow by 400,000, through migration and births, to 1.4 million by 2046. That will create a need for 200,000 new homes.

But where will they all go?

Moving the line

There's an invisible line encircling Ottawa called the urban boundary. It effectively divides town from country, and builders can only build new neighbourhoods inside the line.

Every once in a while, the line is moved. Council tried totweakit back in2009 by adding 230 hectares, butafterbuilders appealed,the city was forced toadd another 1,100hectares for development.

Given the projected population growth, city staff are now contemplatingwhether the city should again let out its belt, and by how much. Their recommendations are expected to be made public Friday, and thedebate will start in earnestat a virtual meeting of the committees responsible for city planning on May 11.

The Ontario government requires that the city maintain aprescribed stock of developable land. The difference this time is that city council gets the final say. There can be no appeals by builders or community groups.

Holding the line

People who follow city businessknow this is a big deal, and some are gearing up for a fight.

Ecology Ottawa hascollected more than 3,000 signatures on a petitioncalling on the city to "hold the line" and leavethe urban boundary unchanged.

"We think it's a once-in-a-generation opportunity to halt urban sprawl," said Emilie Grnier, who leads theenvironmental group's campaigns tofightclimate change. "What the councillorswill decide ... will really have an implication for many years to come."

Ecology Ottawa, the Greenspace Alliance, the Federation of Citizens' Associations and other groupsheldworkshops before the pandemic began, showing how the city can add all those new homes and apartments within Ottawa's existing urban footprint.

They've arranged a virtual rally May 8, and the city promises to give them away to take part in theMay 11 online meeting.

The groups argue the citywill only live up to its promises to tackle climate change and dramatically cut greenhouse gas emissions if people live in denserneighbourhoods where everything they need is within a 15-minute walk.

Bedroom communities

But the organization that represents most home builders says holding the line on the urban boundary would only cause further environmental harmbecause many people will still want their dreamhome at the right price, and will go farther to get it, even if that means crossing the line altogether.

"If you limit people's housing choices within the City of Ottawa, you're only going to push them outside.So you push them to Rockland, to Kemptville, out to Arnprior, and that's the real damagethat's real sprawl there," saidJason Burggraaf of the Greater Ottawa Home Builders' Association.

Carleton Place, Ont., for instance, is growing quickly.

The town, about eight kilometres past Ottawa's western boundary, currently contains some 4,670 dwellings,380 new units added in2018 alone a giant leap from the 60-75 added in previous years.

Developersdon't think accommodating 400,000 people within the current urban boundaryis even feasible.

"If we jamthem all into existing neighbourhoods, we're talking major towers in every ward across the city," Burggraaf said. "Not everyone wants to live in thoseapartments."

The great divide

The city now faces difficult choices if it expands, according to Rideau-Goulbourn Coun. Scott Moffatt, whorepresents both rural residents and suburbanites in Barrhaven.

To witness that great divide between town and country, look no further than Hope Side Road, where stacked townhouses in Kanata's Bridlewoodneighbourhood stare across at tidy rows of corn in a farmer'sfield.

"I would never fail more as a councillor than if I let that become housing," Moffat saidpointing at the field, which he claims to besome of the best remaining farmland in Ottawa.

The suburbs are quickly encroaching on Ottawa's agricultural land, wetlandsandrural villages. Moffatt knows the city needs to expand, but not without careful planning, and not onto suchsensitive land.

In his mind, there's no question city council will have to lay the groundwork fora future city that packs far more people per hectare than it does today.

The city will need to allow higher towers along the LRT, more 12-unit apartments and more units on smaller lots, not just in neighbourhoods like Westboro or at Dow's Lake, but all over Ottawa including its outer edges.

"Are we ready for that? Are our communities ready for that?It's a huge conversation," Moffatt said.