NAFTA negotiations especially important for P.E.I., economist says

By at least one measure, P.E.I. has a larger stake in NAFTA negotiations than the other Atlantic provinces, says an economist with the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council.

An analysis of Statistics Canada data for 2016 by APEC senior policy analyst Fred Bergman found that 89 per cent of P.E.I. exporters sell to the U.S.

"P.E.I. would rank the highest in terms of the number of exporters that export to the U.S. from the Atlantic region," Bergman said.

"That kind of underscores the importance of the NAFTA negotiations from P.E.I.'s perspective."

By dollar value, 80 per cent of P.E.I. exports went to the U.S.

CETA could have an impact

Bergman noted that the 2016 numbers do not take into account the effects of CETA,a free-trade agreement between Canada, the European Union and its member states. Some tariffs to the European Union have already dropped as a result of that deal.

CETA could become a cushion if P.E.I. found itself in a higher tariff environment with the U.S.

"If there were higher tariffs in one country and lower tariffs in another there certainly would be an inclination to trade with a country with lower tariffs," Bergman said.

Bergman added he feels there is a low probability that the NAFTA negotiations will fail to end in a deal.

The APEC analysis found that P.E.I. exporters are doing well relative to the rest of the region.

With nine per cent growth in the number of exporters from 2010 to 2016, it was the only Atlantic province to record growth above the national average of six per cent.

The number of exporters in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador actually fell in that time period.

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