'This process is being rushed': Parents question school enrolment projections

Some Island parents say they aren't putting much faith in enrolment projections made by the P.E.I. Public Schools Branch as part of its current review of almost 40 Island schools.

The projections show an anticipated drop in overall enrolment of two per cent over the next six years, but they also show some much bigger drops at the following schools by the year 2022:

• M.E. Callaghan Intermediate School (Westisle family), down 60 per cent
• Alberton Elementary (Westisle), down 60 per cent
• Southern Kings Consolidated (Montague), down 41 per cent
• Somerset Elementary (Kinkora), down 39 per cent

Some parents are concerned the schools branch hasn't taken into consideration potential new developments within those school catchment areas.

'It just shows this process is being rushed'

"We have a 21-lot subdivision that was just built behind the elementary school," said Janet Payne, a mother of seven from Kinkora. "And that's zoned for residential homes, so we're really hoping to attract a whole lot of families in the next couple years."

Yet, as Payne and others have noted, a report on the Kinkora family of schools includes the phrase "none to report" in a section on residential and commercial development in the area.

• P.E.I. public schools, and whether they are part of the 2017 review

Philip Hebert of Georgetown noted the same lack of information for the Montague family of schools, where he said there should be information on new homes under construction.

"It just shows this process is being rushed, and they're not taking the proper time to evaluate what's really going on in the communities," he said.

Principals asked, information not included in calculations

Bob Andrews is the school reorganization manager for the Public Schools Branch. He said principals were asked about development in the communities where their schools are located last year, but that information wasn't included in the enrolment projections.

He said the schools branch has recently reached out to municipal councils to ask them for information on development in their communities.

• P.E.I. school enrolment by the numbers

"I will consider any information from municipal authorities to maybe adjust projections," said Andrews. "Depending on what we're told by municipal authorities we may increase the projections or decrease it."

Andrews said the projections were made using historical school enrolment data, provincial birth statistics, and data from the Canada Revenue Agency on child benefit payments.

Previous projections underestimated student populations

At public meetings across the province, some parents have also cast doubt on previous enrolment projections put forward in 2008 as part of a process that led to the closure of eight schools.

It turns out those projections came up well short of student populations across the province.

• School rezoning, possible closures, coming for next school year

Overall estimates for 2012 came in five per cent below actual student numbers.

In order for projections for 2017 to hit the mark, enrolment would have to drop 13 per cent below this year's levels. Enrolment grew about two per cent in September 2016 over the previous year.

Projections missed the mark on schools slated for closure

Some schools which were slated for closure in 2008 but remained open haven't shown student declines that were predicted.

St. Jean Elementary's current population of 120 is down just five students from 2007. Parkdale Elementary has grown 18 per cent over that period.

• Trio of Island schools spared at special board meeting

Georgetown Elementary, also saved from that round of school closures, was projected to maintain its population, but has instead seen a decline of 40 per cent.

Those projections were madeusing the same software as the current round of projections, said Andrews.

"Obviously the further you look out, the less confidence you have," he said. "I'm pretty confident the projections are fairly accurate within five or six years."

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