'3-way race, for sure,' latest P.E.I. political poll shows

No party has emerged as a clear leader in the P.E.I. election, according to a Narrative Research poll, sponsored by the Guardian newspaper, released Wednesday morning.

Narrative Research, formerly known as Corporate Research Associates, reached 539 Islanders by phone from April 12-15 for the poll, and asked 'Which party are you most likely to vote for in the election?' The results, among decided and leaning voters, show a tight, 3-way race.

• Green: 35%
• Progressive Conservative: 32%
• Liberal: 29%
• NDP: 3%

Narrative Research CEO Margaret Brigley said given a 4.5 per cent margin of error, the election is tough to call.

"It's within the margin of error. You have a three-way race for sure, with the Green Party leading," said Brigley.

"It does look like P.E.I. is heading for a minority government. Although things can change within one week."

P.E.I. has not seen a coalition or minority government since the 1870s.

UPEI historian Ed MacDonald notes that was an era of much looser party loyalty. Both coalitions came about as a result of politicians switching parties.

Brigley said the eight per cent undecided, 3 per cent not voting, and 3 per cent who would not express an opinion is normal for this point in an election campaign and not a big factor.

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