Environment Canada, Old Farmers' Almanac, coin toss disagree on winter forecast

Predictions for this winter's weather on P.E.I. are coming in from various quarters, but a UPEI climatologist says we can be sure of just one thing: no one knows.

"There's huge uncertainty. There's a lot of scientific evidence that we just cannot predict beyond two weeks ahead," Adam Fenech told CBC News.

"As many of you will know, we don't do that so well either."

Environment Canada is predicting a warmer and drier winter than usual, but Fenech points out while Environment Canada's seasonal predictions do reasonably well in some parts of the country, they are only accurate about 50 per cent of the time on P.E.I.

Venerable journal disagrees

The Old Farmer's Almanac is saying Environment Canada has it all wrong. The winter on P.E.I., and across the Maritimes, will be cold and snowy.

It warns to watch out for a big storm in mid-February.

Fenech is familiar with the computer modelling Environment Canada uses for its forecasts, but said he doesn't know how the almanac comes up with its predictions.

He did note many people swear by the Almanac's forecasts.

Speaking of 50 per cent

Fenech likes to demonstrate the uncertain nature of seasonal forecasting to his students by flipping weather forecasting coins. One says colder/warmer, the other wetter/drier.

This year, the coins contradict both the almanac and Environment Canada. They are calling for a colder season, but with below average snowfall.

And what about you, Prof. Fenech?

Fenech makes the same prediction every winter, based on more than a century of Charlottetown weather data.

"The winters over the last 140 years have been getting significantly warmer, and they've been getting drier, so I tend to stick with that," he said.

"Except for that crazy winter we had a couple of years ago I've been correct."

The predictions are in, but we will have to wait for March to see who got it right.

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