4 Saskatchewan ridings expected to be close races

With the end of the election drawing closer, four ridings in Saskatchewan could still go either way. With less than a four per cent margin in the projections, these are the ridings to watch.

The Conservative Party and NDP are neck and neck in a few battlegrounds

Tiffany Cassidy CBC News Posted: Oct 17, 2015 12:30 PM EDT | Last Updated: October 18, 2015

With electionday drawing nearer, fourridings in Saskatchewan could still go either way. With less than a four per cent margin in the projections, these are the ridings to watch.

1) Saskatoon-University

Left: Riding projections by CBC's poll tracker ric Grenier. Numbers updated October 16, 2015 to reflect the projections from October 15, 2015. Top Right: The riding of Saskatoon-University. Bottom Right: Results from the last federal election in 2011, showing the area that is now Saskatoon-University. (threehundredeight.com/Elections Canada/CBC with Google Maps)

Candidates: New Democratic Party candidate Claire Card leads the projections. Conservative Party candidate Brad Trost trails by only 0.1 per cent. Trost is currently the member of Parliament for the riding Saskatoon-Humboldt.

The other candidates in this riding are Cynthia Marie Block with the Liberal Party, Valerie Harvey with the Green Party, and Eric Matthew Schalm with the Rhinoceros Party.

Factors to watch: According to the projections, this is the closest riding in Saskatchewan. It is a new all-urban riding formed in the last federal electoral boundary redistribution. In the 2011 federal election, the New Democratic Party received 32 per cent of the popular vote, but none of the seats. The new all-urban ridings may change that outcome for the 2015 election.

2) Saskatoon-Grasswood

Left: Riding projections by CBC's poll tracker ric Grenier. Numbers updated Oct. 16, 2015 to reflect the projections from Oct. 15, 2015. Top Right: The riding of Saskatoon-Grasswood. Bottom Right: Results from the last federal election in 2011, showing the area that is now Saskatoon-Grasswood. (threehundredeight.com/Elections Canada/CBC with Google Maps)

Candidates: None of the candidates in this riding have previously been members of Parliament.Conservative Party candidate Kevin Waugh leads in the projections. New Democratic candidate Scott Bell trails by 3.1 per cent.

The other candidates in this riding are Mark Bigland-Pritchard with the Green Party, and Tracy Muggli with the Liberal Party.

Factors to watch: Like Saskatoon-University, Saskatoon-Grasswood is a new riding this election. It is not an all-urban riding, but its rural area has shrunk compared to the old riding Blackstrap in which most of Saskatoon-Grasswoodfalls.

3) Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River

Left: Riding projections by CBC's poll tracker ric Grenier. Numbers updated October 16, 2015 to reflect the projections from October 15, 2015. Right: Results from the last federal election in 2011, showing the area that is now Saskatoon-University. The same riding from the 2011 election exists for the 2015 election. (threehundredeight.com/CBC with Google Maps)

Candidates: Incumbent Rob Clarke with the Conservative Party leads the polls. New Democratic Party candidate Georgina Jolibois trails by 1.2 per cent in the projections.

The other candidates in this riding are Lawrence Joseph with the Liberal Party and Warren Koch with the Green Party.

Factors to watch: This riding has been orange, red, and blue since it first existed in the 1997 federal election. According to the department head of politics and international studies at the University of Regina, Tom McIntosh, the North can tend to act on its own and be difficult to predict. "That's a really internal dynamic," McIntosh told CBC. "It's really dependent on local voting patterns and who the local candidates are."

4) Regina-Lewvan

Left: Riding projections by CBC's poll tracker ric Grenier. Numbers updated October 16, 2015 to reflect the polls from October 15, 2015. Middle: The riding of Regina-Lewvan. Right: Results from the last federal election in 2011, showing the area that is now Regina-Lewvan. (threehundredeight.com/Elections Canada/CBC with Google Maps)

Candidates: None of the candidates in this riding have previously been members of Parliament.Conservative Party candidate Trent Fraser leads the projections. New Democratic Party candidate Erin Weir trails by 1.8 per cent.

The other candidates in this riding are Louis Browne with the Liberal Party, Wojciech Dolata with the Libertarian Party, and Tamela Friesen with the Green Party.

Factors to watch: Like Saskatoon-University and Saskatoon-Grasswood, Regina-Lewvan was redrawn in the latest redistribution of ridings. According to voting stats from Elections Canada, had the redistributed ridings been usedin 2011, the New Democratic Party would have won Regina-Lewvan.

Allprojections are from the analysis of ric Grenier. Grenier is the CBC poll analyst and the person behind the website threehundredeight.com. The numbers were last updated October 16, 2015.

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