Epidemiologist, teachers union left with questions as Regina schools return to in-person classes

The decision forRegina-area schools to return to in-person classes next week has left at least one epidemiologist surprised.

The majority of Catholic and public schools in Regina will be returning to the in-person classes on May 3, the school divisions announced late on Monday.

Dr. NazeemMuhajarine, aprofessor at the University of Saskatchewan, saidTuesday that his assessment of the case numbers in Regina didn't convincehim it is safe to return to class Monday.

"I really don't see the case numbers and the rate per capita in Regina really taking a downward dip," he said.

Muhajarine acknowledged that collateral consequences of remote interaction such as isolation and mental health issues are factors, but saidthe decision to go back to in-person learning is concerningwhen you look at the broader Canadian context.

COVID-19 variants have led to more younger peoplebeing hospitalized and placed in the ICU, andothers dying.

"All of that tells me that it is not really a prudent thing to do," said Muhajarine.

Patrick Maze, the president of the Saskatchewan Teachers Federation, shares that opinion.

He said union members have been trying to figure out if they can refuse to work due to what they see as unsafe conditions.

"Never before in my career has that come up on this level, where en masse, lots of lots of employees are asking about that," Maze saidTuesday.

Regina Public Schools (RPS) saidpre-K to Grade 8 are returning to regular class on May 3.Students in grades 9 to 12 will be alternate days in person.

Regina Catholic Schools (RCS) said elementary students and the majority of high schoolswill return to class with face-to-face education, with masks.

Both organizations said thedecision to return to in-person classescame after extensive consultation and the endorsement of public heath officials.

Neither school board said they had a specific metric guidingtheir decision, butRPS said it had information that "indicate[s] a distinct reduction in [cases among] school aged students."

"[We] continue to have conversations regularly with the [medical health officers]in Regina. We are education experts relying on the expertise of medical experts to make these decisions," said TwyllaWest, a spokesperson for RCS.

Numbers have worsened

It's hard to determine whether there has been a distinct reduction among school-aged students.

The province only publicly provides a provincewide age breakdown for cases, with no region-specific age information.

Overall metrics available for the Regina area say it is actually in a worse state than March 19, when both school districts announced they would begin remote learning.On that day, there were583 known active cases in the Regina area.When the districts announced there were reopening, there were 884.

Hospitalizations in the Regina area have increased to 58 from 37 in that time, while the number of people in the ICU more than doubled to 27 from 13.

Even the positivity rate climbed, to 10.88 per cent from 8.7.

"In terms of the new cases... per capita, we are really in a no better place than we were at the height ofthat surge in inRegina," Muhajarine said.

He said that's why he doesn't think it make sense to go back to in-person classes. At the very least, he said, it means school divisionsneed to explain what has changed and why it is now safe.

Muhajarine saidhe isn't aware of a distinct reduction in cases among school aged children, but made it clearthat he's not privy to that data.He said it's importantthat decisions are based on evidence.

"A date doesn't mean anything in relation to a surge, in a surge of numbers," he said. "What we do has to depend on the numbers of of cases in a community rather than a date on the calendar."

Embracing rapid testing a good thing

RPS confirmed it had been provided with someinformation on rapid testing kits late on Monday, but said ithad yet to review that information.

"Once we do, we will be in a better position to comment on how the kits may be deployed in schools," said Terry Lazarou, a RPSspokesperson.

Muhajarinesaid rapid testing is a good idea, but noted educators have been calling for it for months.

"We cannot keep talking about doing rapid testing. We have to do that."

Open to changing course

Lazarou saidthe public schooldivision has made decisions over the past two years based on the best information from health partners and direction from the province.

He said any future decision on in-class education will continue to be based on that advice.

RCS had a similar tone,with West saying the division is "absolutely committed" to adjust decisions as the situation with COVID-19 changes.