After early heat, experts say Prairies to face climate challenges in season ahead

2023 has offered a strange mix of weather so far, fromwinter weather that continued well into spring, toa spring that has felt more like summer, triggering forest fires and air quality advisories.

So how will the rest of spring and summer shape up in terms of weather in the Prairies, and how will that impact our climate?While some switching weather patterns make this hard to predict, experts are anticipating water supply challenges, fires and drought.

Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), says the Prairies are shifting out of a La Nia pattern where colder Pacific Ocean temperatures prolong cold, winterair and bring late-season snow events.

It's the third winter in a row this pattern has occurred, and only the third time since 1950 that we've seen a "tripledip" La Nia event, Lang said.

Warmer Pacific Ocean temperatures mean we're now shifting into an El Nio pattern. This usually means milder and drier winters on the Prairies.

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Meteorologist Christy Climenhaga explains how a third winter of La Nina conditions could affect our Western Canadian weather.

TheNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued an El Niowatch, and says it could developbetween now and July, but Lang says it's more likely to fully develop by the fall.

Challenge to forecasting

The transition period, Langsaid,doesn't usuallyhave a noticeable temperature or precipitation pattern, making long-term forecasting challenging.

"With April, we kind ofhad a little bit of a hangover from La Nia," said Lang.

"There was still some colder air sitting off the coast of British Columbia. But all of a sudden somebody switched a switch on and we went almost immediately into hot, dry weather."

ECCC's three month outlook shows May, June and July are expected to be warmer than normal in much of Canada. Portions of northern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba havea 70to 90per cent chance of seeingabove normal temperatures.

Precipitation is much harder to predict, said Lang, with ECCC's outlook not showing a noticeabletrend.

Lang said forecasters think this El Nio eventcould be more powerful than others.

"Just now because we have ... that contribution of climate change," said Lang. "We're starting to see temperatures rise globally and what does that mean for an El Nio event ... that's sort of in question right now."

Low snowpack means less water

Much of Alberta and Saskatchewan relieson water from meltingsnow in the Rocky Mountainsfor replenishment of waterways in the summer.

But John Pomeroy director of theUniversity of Saskatchewan's Coldwater Laboratory inCanmore, Alta. told CBCthat this past winter provided one of the lowest snowpacks he's seen.

The snow also meltedabout six weeks earlier than anticipated, fuelled by the unseasonably warm weather.

WATCH |What a low snowpack in the Rocky Mountains means for spring:

What a low snowpack in the Rocky Mountains means for spring

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Insufficient snowfall in the mountains may lead to decreased river flows throughout the summer, creating difficulties for wildlife, fish, and farmers who count on snowmelt for irrigation.

Pomeroy said this means waterways through parts of the Prairies are peaking now, instead of June and July.

"That creates problems for storing water for irrigation ... later on in June," he said.

It could also be challenging, he said, to fill Lake Diefenbakeran important irrigation and drinking water sourceinSaskatchewan.

"No one has tried to attribute this to climate change formally, but it is very, very consistent with the predictions of models for climate change several decades in the future," said Pomeroy.

Much of the Prairies are"abnormally dry," according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's drought monitor, with swaths of moderate drought and pockets of severe drought.

The outlook for the end of May shows worsening drought in parts of Alberta, no change in drought or removal of drought in Saskatchewan and drought developing in portions of Manitoba.

Early fires common, yet concerning: researcher

Lori Daniels, a professor in theForest and Conservation Sciences Department at the University of British Columbia, says this time of year after the snow melts but before trees fully bloom is common for wildfires.

But the quick and severe start to thisfire season, with massiveareas already burned, remindsher of 2016 a year that brought thefire that ravaged Fort McMurray, Alta.

That fire startedamid"similar conditions," she said. "We know the warmer, drierweather is coming."

A lowsnowpackthis yearmeans less moisture in the ground topreventfuture fires, said Daniels.

Natural Resources Canada's fire severity forecast maps show a very high to extreme ratingthrough much of the Prairies especially Alberta and Saskatchewan particularly through May and June.

The severity forecastin Manitoba is also significant, with ahigh to very high ratingduring those months.

Daniels said climate change has already increased the size and severity of fires in Western Canada in recent years, butEl Nio's warmer, drierpatternwill likely also have an impact on fire development.

"We're moving into a multi-year pattern here where we're at risk for prolonged drought and additional fire," she said.

"The fact that at the beginning of this fire season we already have large, fast-moving fires having such consequence in Albertais really a warning sign."

WATCH|After early heat, experts say Prairies to face climate challenges in season ahead:

After early heat, experts say Prairies to face climate challenges in season ahead

1 year ago

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Researchers say intense fires and water security issues could be especially pronounced this summer.