Thunder Bay murder rate 'unlikely' to impact personal safety

Members of the public should still feel safe, even though Thunder Bay has already recorded more homicides in 2014 than the year before, a criminology expert says.

The eighth homicide of the year occurred last week an all-time high according to Thunder Bay police records.

University of Manitoba professor Frank Cormier said the vast majority of people who are victims of violent crime know the perpetrator.

He noted that most people fear the anonymous stranger jumping out of an alley and attacking and killing someone. And the fact is that very few homicides in Canada are of that type.

For most people who have healthy relationships with people around them, "their personal safety really isn't affected to any great extent by whatever the crime rate is from year to year.

Small numbers made to look 'quite large'

Cormier noted Thunder Bay's murder rate may seem high compared to other places. But in small city, even one homicide canimpact the rate andyearly shifts in crime rates are unlikely to impact the safety of most people.

Homicide rates can swing fairly significantly when we look at percentages or numbers per year but, statistically we're talking about small numbers.

In a city the size of Thunder Bay, it only takes one or two incidents to drastically impact the percentage increase compared to bigger cities, Cormier added.

"In smaller sized cities, the effect of one or two or three more homicides will look much larger on a percentage basis, because when we see most crime data [the rate is] per 100, 000 population, he said.

So in a city like Thunder Bay one or two or even three more murders than is normal on a per 100,000 basis the percentage increase will look really quite large."

Nevertheless, Thunder Bays rising homicide rate leaves people naturally concerned, Cormier continued.

Cities can be made safer by gaining a better understanding of how to address problems like alcohol and drug use and socio-economic factors that are related to crime, he said.