What you should (and shouldn't) watch for in Ontario byelections

The two provincial byelections happening Thursday ought to be ho-hum affairs, since neither seat has changed hands in a generation or more. But the candidates running for the Progressive Conservatives sure are making things interesting.

In NiagaraWest-Glanbrook,a longtime PC stronghold, the party is fielding a 19-year-old pro-life university studentnamed Sam Oosterhoff, who would become Ontario's youngest-ever MPP if he wins.

In Ottawa-Vanier, a seat the Liberals consider one of their safest in the province, the PC candidate is AndrMarin, the high-profile, outspoken former provincial ombudsman.

• Focus on hydro rates, appetite for change in Ottawa-Vanier byelection
• Teen candidate spells trouble for Patrick Brown: Analysis by Robert Fisher

The results in both ridings will be worth watching, because they couldgauge the depthof voter frustration with Premier Kathleen Wynne's government,and with their rising hydro bills.

At all-candidates' debates and in door-to-door canvassing, voters are complaining about the high price of electricity. Wynneknows it makes her party vulnerable: her own polling shows94 per cent of Ontariansrank reining in hydro prices as important.

"The way that plays in a particularbyelectionor not, is up to the people in those ridings," Wynnetold a news conference Tuesday in Toronto. "We realize that the cost of electricity has burdened peopleacrossthe province and we're working to help with that."

The results on Thursday could provide evidence of whether that "help" her $1-billion-a-year move to rebate the eight per cent provincial portion of the HST on hydro bills, starting January 1 is enough to satisfy voters.

Ottawa-Vanier 'a Liberal fortress'

Ottawa-Vanier has gone Liberal for 13 straight elections. Most recently, in 2014, MadeleineMeilleurwon with a margin of 13,000 votes, one of the most comfortable Liberal victories in the province. If the party can't hold on to this seat, there will be some serious angst in Wynneland.

Taking such a Liberal strongholdwould be an absolute triumph for Patrick Brown. It would evenoutstrip the significance of former Toronto citycouncillorRaymond Chowinning the SeptemberbyelectioninScarborough-Rouge River, another long-held Liberal seat.

"If there is a Liberal fortress, this is it," Brown said Tuesday.

"This should not be in play. This should not be competitive," the PC leadertoldmein an interview at Queen's Park. "I can tell you the[responsefrom voters at the]doors are encouraging. I think this may be a long night, it may be competitive."

For now, Brown is positioning himself to claim a moral victory should the PCs even come close inOttawa-Vanier.He argues that a Liberal win of less than 10 percentage points about 4,000 votes would raise questions aboutOntarians' confidence inWynne.

The Liberal candidate in the riding is law school deanNathalie Des Rosiers, while the NDP's is former RCMP executive ClaudeBisson. There are eight other names on the ballot.

NiagaraWest-Glanbrook's 19-year-old PC candidate

TimHudakfirst won election in Niagara West-Glanbrook for the PCs in 1995. SamOosterhoff, the PC candidateaiming to succeed him, wasn't even born then.

The 19-year-old has never voted in a provincial election, and now he's running in one. He liveswith his parents. Should he win, he'll represent the biggest wine-growing area in Ontario, and he's barely old enough to drink.

"Long story short, I've just seen the damage the Liberals are doing to families and job creators here in the riding and I decided to get involved,"Oosterhoffsaid in an interviewlast week.

Oosterhoff is strongly anti-abortion but says that "doesn't come up much" when he meets voters. However, he says he is hearing "a lot of concerns from parents"about the province's sex-ed curriculum.

"We need to make sure that we have a curriculumthatrecognizesthe importanceof parents in thatdiscussionandwe need to make sure we have acurriculumthat is crafted inconsultationwith parents,"Oosterhoffsaid.

He counters thatsex-edis not the dominant issue in the vote.

"Thisbyelectionis about makingsurethat we'refocusing ongettingthe cost of living under control for people here in the riding," saidOosterhoff, "focusing on jobs here in the riding, focusing on health care here in the riding, getting hydro rates under control."

• What the nomination of a 19-year-old social conservative means for the Ontario PCs

This part of the province has not sent a Liberal to Queen's Park in nearly 30 years. The realists in Wynne's party are hoping for a respectable showing against the youngster, and not to end up third.

The Liberal candidate is family lawyer Vicky RInguette, the NDP'sisformer Hamilton police officer Mike Thomas. There are six others on the ballot.