The future of Toronto's downtown will remote workers return to the core?

In recent months, Toronto's transit systemhas ramped up service, students have returned to in-person classes and daycares are up and running once again.

Things almost seem like they did before COVID-19 changed the world. But despite the gradual return to normal, you might notice thecity feels emptier.

A November report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce's Business Data Lab analyzed foot traffic trends incities accross the country fromJanuary 2020 to September 2022. It found foot traffic in Toronto's downtown core is 46 per cent lower than before thepandemic hita stark contrast toplaces like Brampton, Brantford and Barrie, where foot traffic actually increased.

Heading into the new year, experts say the data provides a glimpse into the continued trend of remote and hybrid workandits disruptive impact on downtown office space, related economic activityand patterns of movement outside the city.

One trend they expect to continue is employees pushing to continue working remotely.

"I don't think this is something that people are going to give up easily," said Tricia Williams, the director of research at The Future Skills Centre based in Toronto.

If interest rates and unemploymentcontinue to rise, workers might be more willing to compromise. But even then, Williams says, with a widespread labour shortage spanning multiple industries, workers will "continue to be choosy about jobs that give them more flexibility."

"People are voting with their feet," said Williams.

Board of trade 'optimistic'about recovery

According to the chamber of commercereport, Toronto's not the only hub to see reduced traffic. Canada's largest citydid worse than Ottawa, but better than Kitchener and Vancouver. Burnaby, B.C., and Gatineau, Que.,both experienced a heavier drop in foot traffic.

The decreasehas been evidentinmetropolitan centres across the country, but Toronto is in a unique position to recover, says Jennifer van der Valk, the vice president of communications and public affairs of the Toronto Region Board of Trade.She says the city is still a place where people want to live and work due to its amenities and its status as a tourist destination andtransportationhub.

"We really do expect the trends to continue in an upward trajectory. We're feeling quite optimistic," said van der Valk.

While employeeswho can work remotely or within a hybrid setting may explain the decline in foot traffic, van der Valk notes most workersin Toronto had to work in-person throughout the pandemic and continue to move throughout the city regularly.

And even though foot traffic is still down, she says tourists and business travellers are returning something the local economy welcomes, since a loss in foot traffic can comewith a hit to economic activity, the report says.

"It may actually be a new opportunity for innovation and different types of in-person work to come and surprise us," saidvan der Valk.

Future of remote and hybrid work

But the Future Skills Centre, through its own research this year, found a majority of workers were in favour of remote work, wantingit to continue after the pandemic is over. The centre also says mostemployeeswant towork remotely full-timeand aren't interested in hybrid schedules.

And ifcompanieschoose to go against previously established remote and hybrid work arrangements andcall workers back to the office, it might not have the intended effect. It's something the federal government might learn the hard way as it's receiving pushback from its planto have all public servants worktwo to three days in person this coming spring.

"I think there's going to be increasing talent and skill shortages if employers are going to require that," Williams said.

"Because people simply can't afford to live in places where ...the median price for a one bedroom apartment is nearly $2,000 a month," she added. "Flexibility and remote work has been a key kind of survival tacticfor workersnavigating the housing affordability crisis."

The commerce report says the increased foot traffic in cities outside downtown cores is consistent with another trend that popped up during the pandemic: people, particularly remote workers, leaving downtownin favour of less densely populated areas nearby.

Van der Valk says it's likely the businesses and people who will take up the void these workers left will shape a new type of workforce.