Vaccines delayed as province's overcrowded hospitals brace for flu season

Distribution delays forthe flu vaccine will likely mean some people in Ontariohave to wait a little longer to get their shots this year and one doctor says that might actually be a blessing in disguise.

But in an overburdenedhealth care system, others are preaching caution and bracing for a harsh flu season to hit the city this year.

"It seems as if we're in line for a very difficult flu season," saidAllan Malek, chief pharmacy officer for the Ontario Pharmacists Association.

The province saysdistribution delays for the vaccine stem from theWorld Health Organization taking longer to identify the common influenza strains circulating this year.

"Additionally, there have been production issues with some of the manufacturers of the flu vaccine," saidAnna Miller, spokesperson for the Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, in an email.

Despite those delays, Ontarioreceived its initial shipments of the vaccine beginning in late September. Those arelargely intended for seniors and people who are athigh risk for flu complications and hospitalization, who should be vaccinated early.

The province says health care providers will receive their main supply of vaccines "in the coming weeks," but didn't provide a firm date.

For the average person, waiting a little bit to get the flu shot might actually be a good idea, said Dr. Sohail Gandhi, president of the Ontario Medical Association.

He told CBC News that the ideal time to get a flu shot is after the first week of November. That's because, he says, it takes about three to four weeks to kick in, and is only effective for a few months.

By waiting, people's immunity levels would be at their best around peak flu season, Gandhi said.

"If we still get it by the end of the first week of November, that will be good for the population," he said. "The bigger concern for me is not enough people getting the flu shot."

Only42 per cent of Canadian adults reported getting the flu shot last season, though that's up from 38 per cent in the 2017-18 season and 36 per cent in 2016-17, according to the nationalInfluenza Vaccine Coverage Survey.

"That's just not good enough," Gandhi said.

Hospitals at capacity

Even if the delays aren't earth shattering, some doctors are still worried about the upcoming flu season.Kevin Smith, president and CEO of University Health Network (UHN) in Toronto, says hospitals across the province are stretched thin as it is.

"It's obviously worrisome," he said.

According to a report from the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA), visits to the province's emergency departments have increased by 11.3 per cent over the last six years.

Emergency department wait times are also high, and the OHA says that's one of the first signs of a larger capacity crisis.

In January of 2017, 10 per cent of patients waited more than 39 hours to be admitted. By January of 2018, that wait grew to 41 hours.

The report says many hospitals in the province regularly operate at over 100 per cent capacity, although the widely accepted standard for hospital capacity is around 85 per cent.

'That storm we all dread'

Flu season is loominglarge this year because it has alreadyhit so hardin placeslike Australia, which saw an earlier start to its flu season this year and a higher number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Australia is a country Canada looks to for informationbecause of their advanced surveillance of the virus, butit's not a direct indicatorof what will happen here.

UHNhospitals arerunning over 100 per cent occupancy every single day, Smith says, and additionalvisitsfrom people with the flu could increase those pressures even more.

"It could be that storm that we all dread," Smithsaid.

He also advocated that people get vaccinated as soon as they're able.

"The sooner we can get people vaccinated, the greater the likelihood we can get them protected," he said.

Premier Doug Ford has repeatedly pledged to end overcrowding within the province's hospitals, though results on that front have been harder to come by.

Ford said earlier this year that his government would end what's been dubbed "hallway medicine" within a year.

Not long after, Health Minister Christine Elliott saidthe problemis complex, and may take longer than the year Ford promised.

Elliott said at the time thataddressing the issue will require the government to build more long-term care spaces, improve addictions and mental health funding, and address hospital patient flows.

adam.carter@cbc.ca