Ontario PCs face a fork in the road as they look for Patrick Brown's replacement

When it comes to choosing a new leader to replace Patrick Brown, Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party is in uncharted waters.

The PC caucus will meet Friday to select an interim after Brownresigned early Thursday amid allegations of sexual misconduct.That person has to be a current PCMPP.

But once the interim leader is chosen, the party faces another choice: send that interim leader into the June election or hold a rapid leadership vote, which would open up the floor to candidates who don't currently hold a provincial seat.

The party's deputy leaders have been tight-lipped about which route they will take, and political strategists are split over whether a drop-of-the-hat leadership race is even possible, given the looming face-off with Premier Kathleen Wynne.

Who are the front-runners?

Inside the current caucus, severalpossibilities for interim leaderhave been tossed around, including:

• Vic Fedeli, MPP for Nipissing:Fedeli,reported to be the most likely pick, serves as the PC finance critic. The former mayor of North Bay ran in the 2015 PC leadership racebefore withdrawing, andmade his interest in a leadership position clear on Thursday, saying that people had been telling him "It's your time, Vic. You're the person to do this."
• Lisa MacLeod, MPP for Nepean-Carleton:Like Fedeli, MacLeodran in the previous PC leadership vote beforewithdrawing. She's held her Ottawa-area seat since 2006.
• Sylvia Jones, MPPfor Dufferin-Caledon: Jonesserves as deputy leader for the party alongside MPP Steve Clark. When asked during a Thursday news conference if she would run, she responded, "I don't know."

Outside the caucus, well-known political names likeLisaRaitt, deputy leader of the federal Conservatives, and John Baird, former federal minister of foreign affairs, have been raised. Christine Elliott, a former Ontario PC leadership contender who losttoBrown in 2015, has also come up, though she is no longer involved in politics.

There is also speculation that prominent candidatesCaroline Mulroney, running inYork-Simcoe, and Rod Phillips, former head of the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp., running in Ajax, could be options.

'There simply won't be enough time'

According to the PC Party constitution, a leadership election can be called by the party executive either within18 months following the resignation of a leaderor if a leader asks for one. At that point, the executive sets the rules for how the vote will be carried out.

Political strategistAleemKanji, vice-president of Toronto lobbying firm Sutherland Corporation Ltd., told CBC News that despite the constitutional option to do so, he believes "there simply won't be enough time" to turn around a leadership race before June.

"My sense on this is that they are going to go with somebody on the inside, a sittingMPPthat can offer them that stability and peace," he said, noting that MacLeodand Fedeli, both of whom "have been with the party a long time," would be solid options.

A senior consultant at another government relations firm disagrees. Ginny Movat, of CrestviewStrategy, says it's more likely and more desirable forthe PCsto take the plunge into a leadership election in the coming weeks.

"I think the party needs a new permanent leader, and members need a voice," she toldCBCNews,adding that it could be a chance to experiment with online voting.

'Star candidates' and 'big names'

Going for a leadership election, Movat said, makes for a "much bigger bucket of potential candidates," including candidates running in the upcoming election and "big names" from thefederal level.

That opens the door to Raitt and Baird, she said, both of whom have "executive-level elected experience" as well as connections to Ontario.

• Patrick Brown resigns as Ontario PC leader amid sexual misconduct allegations
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• Encounter with Patrick Brown was 'awkward,' accuser tells CBC News

On the candidate side, both Mulroney and Phillipsare "star candidates" who have achieved independent success, said Movat.

A tweet from Phillips on Thursday indicated he supports a pre-election leadership race. He saidthe PC leader must have a "clear mandate" fromthe party's "some 200,000 members."

Neither Mulroney nor Phillips, however, has elected political experience, Movat noted a potential knock against them in a leadership race against more experienced politicians.

'Momentum' to choose a woman

MacLeod, Jones, Raitt and Mulroney may have the additional advantage of providing a clear break from Brown's alleged misconduct.

"One advantage for the PCs with a woman leader is they would have an image of newness after Patrick Brown, which is harder to create if he were succeeded by a man with similar age and racial characteristics," Sylvia Bashevkin, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, said in an email to CBC News.

"What I'm hearing for the most part is there's a lot of momentum towardmaking sure we've got a woman leader, or at least putting a woman forward as a possible candidate," said Conservative strategist Jason Lietaer.

Like Movat, Lietaer feels strongly that a leadership vote will be imminent.

"There is time to introduce somebody, there's time to put some advertising behind that person," he said.