Trudeau unlikely to pick many Toronto cabinet ministers: experts

Nearly half of the newly-elected Liberal caucus is fromOntario, and the winning party swept Toronto, but a commitment to regional diversityis sure to leave many accomplishedOntariocandidates without a cabinet portfolio, prominent Liberals agree.

Regional representation incabinet is an important Canadian tradition, according to Liberal Senator Art Eggleton, who was first appointed toprime minister JeanChrtien'scabinet as President of the Treasury Board and Minister of Infrastructure in 1993.

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"It's important that all parts of the country feel they are part of the governance of Canada and they've come to expect that's the case," Eggleton said.

Swearing in of the new government is expected to commence Wednesday morning.

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Follow the swearing in of prime minister-designate Justin Trudeau and his cabinet on our live blog atcbcnews.cabeginning at8 a.m. ET, followed by CBC News special coverage with Peter Mansbridge live at9:30 a.m. ETon CBC Television and CBC News Network and livestreaming atcbcnews.ca.

Breaking with that tradition would be difficult for prime minister-designate Justin Trudeau, even if that means overlooking some MP'sfrom the GTA who might bring notable experience to a portfolio.

Trudeau's dilemma, ironically, is that he has "an embarrassmentof riches," according to Eddie Goldenberg, Chrtien's former chief of staff and senior policy advisor.

In Toronto, he can choose from an experienced and popular former city councillor, Adam Vaughan, former police chief Bill Blair or a Bay Street veteran, Bill Morneau.

While it's an asset forTrudeauto have the specialized knowledge thattheGTA'sprospects for cabinet ministersbring to the table,there are so many other considerations, like experience, ethnic diversity and of course the "convention that in Canada every province should be represented,"Goldenbergsaid.

Eggletonwas only one of five appointees from Toronto in 1993.With Trudeau's cabinet,even though 80of the184 Liberal MP'shail from Ontario,Eggleton said he'd be surprised if there will beeven that many, considering Trudeau'spre-conditions andthe custom of regional representation.

On Oct. 20, theday after the federalelection, Trudeau talked about his campaign promise to have gender parity in his cabinet.Speaking in French he said, "I'm very pleased to say we will respect that. Just look at the extra-ordinary women who wereelected for the Liberal party across the country. The cabinet will have a gender balance."

It's alsowidely expectedTrudeauwill have a cabinetof 28-30 ministers, much smaller than Stephen Harper's last cabinet.

Urban affairs role

Former deputy prime ministerSheila Copps said forming the cabinet "is probably the toughest part of governing."

In her two decades in the House of Commons, she saidthat "some who are not included don't get over it. The reality is even though you have fewer cabinet ministers from Ontario, Ontario is a more powerful voice and re-election is a very compelling message, as well."

She expectsOntario will be represented in Trudeau's cabinet proportionally,but that means about half a dozen ministers from the entire province, not just from the GTA.

One way to compensate might be through a cabinet position solely oncity strategy, she said.

"Public Works is biggest landlord in the country," Coppssaid, but sheaddedthatdepartment "doesn't look at its role in terms of city structure," or tackle urban issues.

Competence key, not 'quotas,'says professor

Political science professorPauline Beange said not only is Ontario one of the economic engines of the country but in large part, Ontario voters gave Trudeau the election.

"Pulling together a cabinet that is competent and that reflects the people who think they are owed something is challenging," Beange said.

She said the portfolios should be assigned based on "competence as opposed to doing it on quotas based on gender, regional identity and other considerations."

Everyone wants the "top prize," Eggleton said, but "those people who don't make it on this round will make it next time."

NelsonWiseman, a professor of political science at theUniversity of Toronto,agreed that "cabinet creep," will create opportunities in the future.

Wiseman used Harper's cabinet as an example. Itstarted out with26 ministersin 2006but by his last term it had ballooned to 40, tied with former prime minister Brian Mulroney for the largest cabinet in Canadian history.

Historically, Wiseman said, the "real cabinet is no longer the cabinet. It's the prime minister's office. Is that going to change? We'll see. I'm skeptical."

While there's a lot of talent on the Liberal bench, the question is whoseskills and talents will end upincabinet.And the only peoplewho knowthe answerright now areTrudeau and team he has selected..