More precipitation, higher temperatures: projecting Windsor's climatic future

In March 2018, the City of Windsor agreed to participate in a climate change action report, which would look at the future of Windsor's climate and ways to mitigate risk wherever possible.

The final version of the report was delivered at Monday's council meeting.

Future climatic projections

Part of the report looked at what temperature and precipitation levels would be like in Windsor in the future.

Using a current annual baseline temperature of 9.5 C, the report predicts the baseline in the 2080s will be 13.9 C. Mean, minimum and maximum temperatures are predicted to "significantly increase" in every season.

Temperature extremes are also predicted to increase, with the current baseline of 22 days above 30 C increasing to 34 days above 30 C by the 2020s not too far in the future. Days below 10 C are supposed to drop, with zero days below 10 C predicted by the 2080s.

Projected data shows precipitation will fall at a faster rate and short storms will have higher intensity. Winter and spring are projected to get wetter, but there should be less precipitation in the summer.

Water temperatures are also expected to increase, especially in the Erie basin. A 33 per cent loss of coldwater stream habitat is projected as a result, with water temperatures rising from 25 C currently to 30.6 C by the 2080s.

Cost of climate change

The more extreme weather events projected increase the health and safety risk to the community. The report shows there will be an increased demand on emergency social services due to problems with community development, transit and emergency preparedness.

The increase in basement flooding due to extreme precipitation was rated as "almost certain" to occur in the report. The data shows a large increase in calls from 2010 to 2017 to 311 to report basement flooding. Some years in between resulted in fewer calls. In 2010 there were 2,320 calls made to 311 compared to 5,982 calls in 2017.

The tree canopy in Windsor was projected to be impacted by increasing intense storms. The report indicates this will lead to decreased summer tourism and a shift in the tourism industry based on damage to Windsor's natural features and increased damage to trails, parks and green spaces. The report uses the windstorm on August 6, 2018 as evidence OjibwayNature Centre had to close for several days for cleanup.

The report projects problems with resource diversion due to severe weather. In 2016 after the tornado, more than $100,000 had to be allocated for response and cleanup. The 2017 flood used $1,690,086 of the city's money for response and cleanup. Since 2016, the report showed Windsor has incurred costs of more than $2.1 million.

Council said they intend to receive public comments on the adaptation planin the fall of this year.