Alberta NDP poised for historic breakthrough, new poll suggests

An exclusive CBC poll suggeststhe Alberta NDP has a solid lead provincewide, but that doesn't mean Rachel Notley is on the verge of leadingan NDP majority government in the May 5 election.

"I thinkAlbertansshould be prepared for a minority government," saidBruce Cameron,president of Return On Insight.

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"We'd have Wildrose getting most of the seats in the areas outside of the cities, PCs getting most of the seats in Calgary and the NDP getting most of the seats in Edmonton and that is a recipe for a minority government."

His staff spoke to 750Albertansfor roughlyfive minutes on the phone both cellphones and landlinesover four days starting April 25for the company's new poll.

The data suggests the NDP is in a sizable lead right now across the province with38per cent of the decided vote.

"In 26years of doing this work in Alberta, this is the highest I've ever seen the NDP," said Cameron.

"Theinteresting thing is how it splits out, because more than half of their vote is concentrated in Edmonton, so it will not translate into asmany seats as a 38 per cent public opinion pollmightusuallytranslate."

The Progressive Conservatives are in second place with 24per cent support among decided respondents, while theWildrosehas21 per cent.

'PCs could stage a comeback'

Cameron believes leaderBrian Jean hasn't broadenedWildrose'sappeal beyond its base, but it is strong in many rural ridings.

"To a large extent, the Wildrose will battle it out againstthe PCs, but the NDP show surprising strength in some of those areas too," he said. "So I would watch for some very interesting races in the areas outside the two main cities where youwouldn't normallythink the NDP couldhave a chance."

While leader Jim Prentice and the Tories don't have the strongest numbers right now, Cameron says they have seen "some signs that the PCs could stage a comeback."

He says that's because the Tories have well-known incumbents in a number of tight races, and there are still undecided voters.

"They also have the power of incumbency in terms of the get-out-the-vote machine, and a lot of well-known candidates who have been in those areas a long time. So those in close three- or four-way races might turn out to be PC."

The pollingresults suggests more than a quarter ofAlbertanshave not figured out who they will support.

"It's healthy to be skeptical about polls, especially in the last five years," said Cameron. "My firm has used a combination of live telephone calling during electionsas well as social media analysis, and that's allowed us to predict thePC comeback in 2012 herein Alberta and theLiberal win in B.C., when everyone thought the NDP wasgoing to win."

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6percentage points, 19times out of 20.