Barack Obama doesn't have to be a 'lame-duck' president

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With just over two years left in his term, Barack Obama nowfaces the predictable barrageby some critics and political observers that his remaining timeas presidentwill mostly be as a "lame duck."Buthistory shows that presidents can still bring about realchange whiletheir term windsdown.

Since lame-duckismis such conventional wisdom, it almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy," said MichaelKorzi, professorof political science at Towson University in Maryland and director of the master's program in social science. "So even though I dont know if it necessarily is restricting presidents, the fact that everybody assumes that it is, does seem to have the effect of kind of making them beside the point to an important degree.

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And that's usually reinforced by the politicalrealities of the results of themidterm elections. In 1986, former president Ronald Reagan was dealt a blow when the Republicans lost control of the Senate.After the Republicans got thumped in the 2006 midterms, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote that for the remainder of George W. Bush's term,Americans would be watching the presidentclean out his desk.

"I think it can go in different ways but I think the midterms are one ofthe mechanisms by which lame duck periods really take shape," said Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University.

'Much more constrained'

"Theyre much more constrained," he said. "It's hard for a president to doanythingon Capitol Hill, but the closer you get to the end, the fewer big legislative accomplishments youre likely to see."

That lame-duck period can alsooccur much before the midterms or for other reasons.While the 1998 midterms didn't change the power structure of the House or Senate, Bill Clinton was muted bythedistraction ofhis impeachment proceedings and the fallout of the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

"This is why the term can be a little slippery," Korzi said. "I think you can make a pretty strong argument that given the fact that the Republicans took the house in 2010, and thenretained it in 2012, there's a sense in which Obamas second term wasalways going to have an elementof lame duck."

"Ithink to somedegreeit's overstated because our system is structured to reduce presidents' optionsregardlessif they can be re-elected or not.Sometimes, adividedgovernment can be just aspowerful an obstacle aslame-duckism."

However, presidents do still have options, and can flexsome politicalmuscle as their term comes to an end.Reagan, for example, was able to sign a major nuclear arms treaty with the Soviet Union(the INF treaty), with a goal toeliminateintermediate-range and shorter-range missiles.

Clinton continued to work on deficit reduction, played a role in theNorthern Ireland Good Friday agreement, signed a number ofexecutive orders (many to do with the conservation of public lands)and issued some controversial pardons.

Bush was able to push ahead with the troop surge in Iraq andthe Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) during the financial crisis, all occurring near the end of his presidency

"Presidents can move to thecentreor the other option is tojustbecome more resolute,"Zelizer said."Bush is a good exampleafter 2006.Instead of backing out of Iraq, he increased the number of troops there. He didnt havemuchto lose at that point."

"Theres a kind of liberation that comes in those final two years because you dont have to worry about elections again," Korziadded. "[They]don'thave to stand for re-election. [They] donthaveto grovelforvotes, so itallowsthem to dowhattheymightwant to do at the risk of alienating supporters and so forth.

"And sometimes yousee presidentstakingpositions that youwouldn'texpect them to do."

But Korzi said if Obama makes any bold moves in his final two years, it will have to be something in the foreign policy realm.

Zelizersaid he believes there will be limited activity coming out of the White House in those last couple years.And with all eyes on the nextelection, members ofhis own party will push back on anything he wants to do that'scontroversial, he said.

"The combination of the outcome of the midterms with the next presidentialelectionwill justcreateconstraints on what hes going to do."