Canada election 2015: Why Stephen Harper is battling it out with Wynne and Notley

A political spat that erupted this week between Conservative LeaderStephen Harper and the Alberta and Ontario premiers is being seen by some as acalculated move on Harper's part to shore up his traditional party base.

"In the Canadian politics playbook, attacking premiers in the middle of a federalelection campaign is unusual," saidCristine de Clercy, associate professor of political science at Western University.

"It's not clearto me what sorts of benefits Mr. Harper expects to secure in taking on two provincial premiersas well as the leaders of the otherfederalopposition. It's almost like a multi-front war now, and those tend to not end up very well."

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But de Clercy, who is also co-director of theLeadership and Democracy Laboratory, said Harper rarely takes action in haste or without some calculation of the benefits of those actions.

"The prima facie explanationis that he'shoping to shore up loose Conservativefish in the two provinces in question," she said, adding thatmany who vote Liberal provincially will vote Conservative federally.

"This may well be an effortto pushthose peopleto more enthusiasticallyrally around the Conservativeflag. Whether it works, we'll see."

Harper and Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne have been battling it out for months over issues such as infrastructure and a pension plan forOntariansthat the Conservatives view as nothing more than a tax hike.

Wynne, for her part, hasblasted Harper, calling for a new federal government and publicly endorsing Liberal Leader JustinTrudeau.

'Open hostility'?

On Tuesday, Harper took a not-so-subtle swipeat Wynne'sperformance as premier, saying:"I think I willobserve what a senior official told me when I took office. They said, 'You will have your best relations with the premiers who are doing a good job in their own jurisdiction.'"

"It's not unusual to see premiers supporting leaders of their party, it's a littlemore unusual to see open hostility with leaders who represent a differentparty,"said EllyAlboim, associate professor in the school of journalism and communication at Carleton University."I think this is a little louder and more pointed than we're used to."

Harper vs. Premiers?

9 years ago

Duration 9:49

Candidates Bernard Trottier, MaryAnn Mihychuk and Nikki Ashton debate the growing war of words between Stephen Harper and some premiers

But Harper has alsotaken aim at Alberta PremierRachel Notley, referring tohernew NDP government'sdecision to raise corporate and income taxes as a "disaster." (Notley responded that her government's priority is to protect the jobs of "regular working families," rather than "wealthy Conservative friends and insiders.")

It's not the first time Harper has become entangled in an a publicspatwith a provincialleader.Former Newfoundland and Labrador premierDanny Williams, a Progressive Conservative, waged an "Anything But Conservative" campaign in 2008, accusing Harper of lying to him in a dispute over the federal-provincial equalization formula.

The result wasn't pretty for the federal Conservatives. The party won no federal seats in the province and their popular support dropped more than 25 points.

But the Conservatives may begambling that in this case, by taking on premiers who both won majority governments, they will motivate traditional Conservatives to vote.

Converting support into votes

"TheConservativesuccess has not been in convincingpeoplewho do nottraditionallyvote for them," said Tim Abray, a teaching fellow who studiespolitical communication and democratic theory at Queens University. "Theirsuccesshas beenmobilizingthepeoplewho dosupport them."

"Spend 10 minutes on Twitter. Pretty much any utterance about the NDP or Kathleen Wynne is greeted with a fairly long diatribe from people who are traditional Conservative supporters," Abray said.

It's possible that strategycould backfire. For example, withWynne now actively campaigning for Trudeau, that could rally up the Liberal base in vote-rich Ontario.

"Itis a double-edged sword, but it's acalculated choicethat [the Conservatives]make, hoping itturns out well becauseof theirabilitytoconvertsupport into votes," Abray said.

As forNotley, so far shehas remained quiet, in terms of offering any endorsement for NDP Leader TomMulcair.

"I think, in fact, she'sbehavingin a more normal mode for provincialpremiers andleaders, which istolend supportand helpandmake kind comments without[endorsing]a candidateas soon as the campaign starts,"deClercy said.

"Ithinkif she doesn't [endorse], it's the smarter move.Notley's focus has to be her own challenges, and those includebringing on side many, many, many groupsofpeoplewho are notnecessarilyfamiliarwith or friendlyto her government.

"So Idon't see at this pointthere's any large gain for her to endorseMr. Mulcair."