Could a few million Belgians veto the Canada-EU trade deal? It hasn't happened yet

Oh to have beena fly on the wall in Paris Friday night.

We don't know the exact words spoken by French President FranoisHollande when he met with the leader of the regional government in Belgium that just voted to effectively veto the Canada-Europe trade deal.

Nor do we know whatCanada's trade envoy, PierrePettigrew, said next, in his own meeting with Wallonia's Minister-President Paul Magnette.

But here's a strong guess: How can we make you change your mind?

• Trudeau remains 'confident' trade deal will pass
• Belgian region's rejection imperils deal
• Trudeau warns Europe: Signdeal or risk becoming irrelevant

"The pressures are very strong," Magnette said on his way out.

A Canadian officialsaidPettigrew's chat was "frank" and "valuable."

At stake is not simply a seven-year negotiation process to droptariffs, open up new markets and agree on common standards forbillionsin annual trade.

It defines, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in Ottawa Thursday, theessentialusefulness or uselessnessof the European Union'strade policy.

Rejection bytwo of fiveregional governments in Belgium over thepast week seemed to blockthe Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA).

In Belgium's federal system, regions must agree.

But acloser listen toMagnettesuggests something else: the search for a way out.

"We must say 'no,'to negotiate. Not a 'no' to scupper everything and set the cat amongst the pigeons, but 'no' to put us in a position of power that will allow us to improve social norms, environmental norms and to win more respect for public services," he said.

More negotiation.Yes,you've heard this before.

Another draft?

When Trudeau'sLiberals took over, CETAnegotiations were supposed to haveconcluded. But theystalled during legal scrubbing.

It becameapparent the only way forwardwas a rework of the investor-state dispute settlement clauses, something International Trade Minister Chrystia Freelandsaid she was "happy" to do to makeCETA more progressive.

It wasn't enough.

Over the last few weeks, faced with waveringsupport among European centre-left parties, Canada's beenworking with the EUon a supplementary "joint interpretative declaration" toclarify how itprotects a state'srightto regulate environmental or labour standardsand protect public services.

That additional textwas supposed to be finalized next Tuesday, whentrade ministers from all 28 member states gather in Luxembourg to greenlightasigning ceremony forOct. 27.

Enter the Walloons as Belgians from this region are knownwithtractors in the streets warning about threats to their regional ways and suggestingFlemish Belgiansgain more than they do from CETA.

Because nothing is simple, the twovotes in the Wallonian legislatures this weekare caught up in the fragile dynamics of Belgium's complexpolitics.

The federalgovernment (and prime minister) is Liberal right-leaning, pro-trade deal.

Regional socialist governments providestrategicopposition.

The former EU trade commissioner who negotiated CETAwasa Flemish Liberal:KarelDeGucht.In aDutch interview, he calledon the foreign minister to sign anyway, forcingWalloons to fight inconstitutionalcourt.

Canada has saidthe Wallonia votes aren't binding.

French socialists, led by Hollande, were supposed topersuadethe Walloons the way German social democrats were helpful in bringingAustria's social democratic chancellor around.

But although Walloons speak French, they don't necessarily like, or take direction from, the French.

Hard line or soft sell?

It's not clear the frustrationTrudeauarticulated Thursday helped nor the warning of Freeland'sparliamentary secretary David Lametti, who toldlegislators in Wallonia there would be "consequences" if they reject CETA.

Was thetough toneunproductive?

It came in stark contrast toFreeland'ssunnycampaignover many monthswhich saw the minister winning over reluctant votesin Germany and Austria forher "gold-standard," progressivedeal deliberatelydistancing it from contentious trade talks with the U.S.

Trudeau seemed to abandon tough talkFriday, shiftingto sayingCETA will succeed, despite Wallonia.

Trudeau says the CETA deal will go through

8 years ago

Duration 2:02

Trudeau says the CETA deal will go through

Not shocked, but disappointed

"If I was a Canadian, I could completely understand why they would be fed up with this situation," said David Martin, a British member of the European Parliament working to rallysocial democrats across Europe for CETA.

Martin, speaking from thetrenches of thepoliticking in Brussels as a member of the international trade committee,said he was not shocked, but disappointedthe Walloons said no.

He thought the interpretative declarationthatleaked out last weekwasenough to address concerns. And if it wasn't, it canbe revised.

"I wonder if there is any substance to the objection, or whether we're now in a bit of a political drama that people are just trying to grab the spotlight," he said.

'50-50 odds'

So what now? Europe's trade ministersmeetTuesday. Belgium says others are wavering too.

"I've heard that if they can't solve the Belgian crisis ... there may be no option but to postpone," Martinsaid.

Anotheroption might be for Belgium to consider a "constructive abstention" while other countriesapprovesigning: not block it, but stay quiet.

"It's definitely not dead," he said he still expects his committee to consider it in December, Europe's parliament to ratify it in January, and a provisional application of most of the deal by early 2017.

"Holding an agreement hostage for rent-seeking purposes is not unusual in EU trade policy," writes David Kleimann, a researcher ofof EUtrade law and policy at the European University Institute.

"But in this case it seems to be more of a regional-mood issue rather than a self-interested rational move."

When Italy held up the EU'sagreement with South Korea, a way was found to buy them off, he said.

Full ratification will eventually requirevotes in over 30 states and regional legislatures. The EUmay want all28 signatures in hand. So, it could delay, again, until Belgium sorts itself out.

"Thiskind of gamble is not entirely unprecedented," he said, offering 50-50 odds ofa negotiated solution."But the schedule for CETA signature and provisional application is in danger now."