As U.S. presidential election enters final days, Canada braces for the fallout

The federal government is preparing for the weeks of uncertainty that might follow aU.S. presidential election daywith no clear winner bydrawing up contingency plans for the border and other issues that might erupt between the Nov. 3 vote and inauguration day in January.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has signalled already thathis government has been monitoring the election more closely in the final weeks of the campaign because of its potential impact on the Canadian economy.

"I think we're certainly all hoping for a smooth transition or a clear result from the election like many people around the world," Trudeau tolda news conference earlier this month. "If it is less clear, there may be some disruptions and we need to be ready."

The cabinet committee on global affairs and public security has been preparing forvariousscenarios:President Donald Trump's re-election,a victory by Democrat Joe Biden, ora lengthy period of uncertainty coupled with multiplecourt challenges to decide the outcome.

We can't rely on the good-neighbour, best-friend status anymore. And that remains regardless of a Trump or a Biden victory.- Sen. Peter Boehm

A government official (who asked not to be identified because the person is not authorized to speak publicly on the plans) said the cabinet committee is worriedabout security at the border,the prospect ofeven higher COVID infection rates in the U.S. and thepossibility of Trump taking harder lines on international issues that could affectCanada.

Trump has refused on a number of occasions to say he will guarantee a smooth transition of power if he losesand has been pushing unsubstantiated claimsabout massive voter fraud during the pandemic as an unprecedented number of Americans mail in their ballots.

Sen.Peter Boehm isan experienced formerCanadian diplomat who was posted to Washington during the disputed 2000 election result in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. He said the Canadian government has worked hard since Trump's election to develop contacts at all levels of the government in the United States.

A more 'sophisticated' approach to Washington

Boehm said those contacts, honed during the prolonged negotiations to renew NAFTA,should help Canada navigate any challenges that emerge after Nov. 3.

"What we've seen over the last four years is a greater utilization of the tools we have. What that means is not just discussions at the head-of-government level but with Congress, on Capitol Hill and with state and local government," he said.

"And what that tells us is that we have had to become more sophisticated in our approach, that there has to be consistent contact and a network, because we can't rely on the good-neighbour, best-friend status anymore. And that remains regardless of a Trump or a Biden victory."

The Trump presidencyhas proven to be an unpredictable dancepartnerfor Ottawa. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement and imposed national security tariffs on Canadian exports of steel and aluminum.

Trump called Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "very dishonest and weak" in tweets following the troubled G7 summit hosted by Canada in 2018 while on other occasions he's declaredthat he likesthe prime minister very much.

A protectionist tilt on both sides

Biden is less volatile and more in line with Canada on issues such as climate change. But he would cancel the Keystone XL pipelineproject which is still viewed by Alberta as a vital propfor the troubled oilpatch and his platform emphasises the same sort of Buy American and protectionist procurement pledges championed byTrump.

Either way, Canadian officials will need to remain vigilant in protecting this country's interests particularlythe bilateral trade relationship and the millions of jobs that depend on it, and especiallyif pressure mounts from the U.S. side to re-open the border for non-essential travel.

"The past four years created real frictions," said Andrew McIntosh, a Canadian-born lawyer in Florida who heads the Canada-Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce.

"You can't be a Canadianliving in the States and not recognize that the relationship has been challenged, not just in business terms but as neighbours, the value we place on the relationship. I don't think anyone can look at the Canada//U.S. relationship and not feel that there's been a disregard for the history and close ties between the two countries."

Donald Trump unbound

Scotty Greenwood is the CEO of the Canadian-American Business Council and a partner with Crestview Strategy in Washington. She said Canada will have to treadcarefully if no clear winner emerges on Nov 3.

"Everyone is holding their breath to see if it's four more years of Trump or a new administration," she said.

Greenwood said that she believes Trumpwould be further emboldened by winning a second term.

"You would need to worry a lot about tariff wars. The expectation is that the United States would get into more and more of a transactional relationship," she said. "Canada developed a playbook that was reasonably successful in dealing with the Trump administration during the NAFTA negotiations and they will need to keep that."

Boehm said the Canada/U.S. relationship has to be built around more than personal connections to the person in the Oval Office.

"What this relationship comes down to is not whether you like the chief executive but what's in your own nation's best interests," he said.

"That's how the U.S. works and that's how Canada has to work."

That means Canadian political leaders need to refrain from making any commentsor endorsing either Trump or Biden especially if the process of counting mail-in ballots,or deciding oncourt challenges launchedover the results,leavesthe outcome uncertainfor daysorweeks.