Europe watching for close vote today on Canada's trade deal

Canada's trade deal with the European Union was signed last October, but its ratification is neither sealed nor delivered.

Members of the European Parliament voteWednesday around noon local time (6 a.m. ET) following a final debateat their plenary session in Strasbourg, France.

With the fate of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) hangingin the balance, observers trying to get an accurate read on the head count say it might be close.

Canadian officials have consistently expressed optimism that enough members of the European Parliament (MEPs)have beenwon over.

One positive sign for the officials is thatInternational Trade Minister Franois-Philippe Champagne is on his way to Strasbourg to be present for the ratification vote.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau takes off tomorrowand isscheduled tospeak to parliamentarians Thursday to celebrate and promote thenew deal.

Criticismof the deal also persists.

Greenpeace campaigners dressed like Mounties were working EUhallways last week handing out lollipops to deliver their message that "CETA sucks."

If a majority of the 751 legislators vote against CETA, the deal fails. It won'tmatter that all 28 member states (eventually, in Belgium's case) gave it their blessing for signature last fall.

Could that happen?

The debate in severalEuropean Parliament committees offereda mixed preview.

The employment and social affairs committee recommended against ratifying in December.

The environment, public health and food safety committee voted in favour of ratifying a few weeks later.

The trade committee's blessingon Jan. 24 paved the way for Wednesday's plenary vote.

Socialists and Democrats key

The largest political group in the European Parliament, the European People's Party (217 seats), supports CETA.

The third- and fourth-largest blocs, the European Conservatives and Reformists and Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, are also expected to vote in favour.

On the other side, Green MEPs as well as far-right nationalist MEPs (think NigelFarage, Marine Le Pen) are expected to oppose.

That leavesthe second-largest bloc, the 189 votes of the Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) as the keyswing voters. Some are underpressure from socialist allies andtrade unionsin their respective countries to vote against.

The group met late Tuesday and about 65 per cent of the MEPs in the room voted in favour of CETA, suggesting a similar split outcome in tomorrow's plenary.

After a long, "intellectually rich" debate,CETAadvocate and Romanian MEP Sorin Moisa said this split wasslightly better than he was expecting.

"CETAis an important step, whether they vote for it or not, in creating a more progressive trade policy," he said.

Trudeau praises Freeland's 'backyard diplomacy'

8 years ago

Duration 1:42

PM Justin Trudeau tells high school students how committed Chrystia Freeland was in getting the CETA deal passed with the E-U, to the extent of having a bbq in her own backyard for a number of important guests.

Moisa believes Canada's commitment toimprovethe investor court provisionsand conduct an early review of the enforceability of the deal's sanctions on labour and environment helped win over skeptics.

So did a strong desire to signal empathy and solidarity with Canada in the face of President Donald Trump's aggressive protectionism inthe U.S.

"The trend he represents is different from the trend represented by CETA," Moisa said.

CETA bill clears Commons

If Wednesday's vote succeeds, Canada and the EU have agreed to provisionally apply over 90 per cent of the deal within months the parts deemed entirelywithin the EU's legal jurisdiction.

The rest waits for ratification votes in individual countries.

Canada's implementation bill, C-30, passedat third reading onTuesday afternoon. It now proceeds to the Senate.

Bill C-30 makes legal and regulatory changes to bring Canada into compliance with CETA.

Canada's provinces and territories Quebec in particular also mustchange laws and regulations to comply.None have signalled they won't co-operate.

Provisional application takes effectafter an exchange of diplomatic notes to say these processes arecomplete.

Most of the advantages Canadian businesses could enjoy from CETA tariff elimination, market access, government procurement opportunities and harmonized regulations kick in with provisional application.

The deal could bein force provisionally for years if full ratification proves difficult.

Activists targeting future votes

Fresh images from Washington Monday ofTrudeauand Trump smiling and shaking hands becamefodder for criticswho fearCETAgives U.S. corporations a back door into Europe through Canadian subsidiaries.

Social media Tuesday showed anti-CETAgroupsmobilizing foryet another protest on the streets outside the vote.

Maude Barlow from the Council of Canadianstells CBC News she won't be among them, despite her organization's continuingcampaign.

"It is going to pass," she wrote, "but not by the kind of margin it should, given the time it has taken to negotiate and all the effort that has gone into promoting it by the powers that be.

"Really it should be a landslide for them and it won't."

Barlow saidshe's saving her energy for the next fight: votes and possibly referendums in 27 out of the 28 member states.

"CETA opponents only need one 'no.'CETA proponents need 38 'yeses,'" she said, referring to all the legislaturesacross Europe (plus regional governmentsin Belgium) that will hold ratification votes.

If MEPsshut down this treaty first, it wouldn't be unprecedented.

In 2012, thecontroversialAnti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) was defeatedafter too much skepticism swept acrossBrussels.

Trudeau's plane doesn't leave until midday Wednesday just in case, perhaps.