'It's not in the bag': Why frontrunner Bernier isn't a lock to win Conservative leadership

Aftera year of campaigning, Maxime Bernier appears to haveout-polledand out-fundraisedhis 12 remaining rivals for the Conservative leadership.

He's in a great position. But it might not be enough to winon May 27.

"No, no it is not in the bag," Berniersaid in response to suggestions from the media that the race was his to win afterKevin O'Leary not only dropped out, but endorsed him.

"We have to work."

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Front-runners say that. Complacent voters don't turn out for foregone conclusions. Better to motivate supporters with the fearof losing.

But thatfear may belegitimate in this race.

'Unpollable'

Public opinion researchershave tried to predict the outcome by contacting Conservatives off the party'sevolving membership list, surveying party donorsor tapping people who call themselves Conservatives innational surveys.

But even sampling the final membership list has its difficulties.Several camps say it's missing accuratephone numbers and e-mail addresses. Manyeligible voters are unreachable.

"It might be unpollable," said Darell Fowlie, who's working on Lisa Raitt's campaign.

That might be an unsurprising opinionfrom a campaign that's behind.And knocking pollsters for theirpredictionsis a familiar political pastime.

But Fowlie has a point. Each constituency carries equal weight, but conducting riding-level polls in all 338 would costhundreds of thousands of dollars.

"No one's doing that, I can tell you that much," said Michael Diamond, who works onKellie Leitch'steam.

Conservatives who provided their phone numbers have been bombarded with calls from the party, pollsters and rival camps. Some report as many as three or four calls a night. Have some just stopped answering?

Fowliesaidhe looked into the methodology of oneautomated poll that had Chris Alexander unusually high, he thought. Candidates were suggested in alphabetical order ("Press 1 for Chris Alexander, Press 2 forMaximeBernier..."), and he wondered if somerespondents just hit one to get off the phone.

The number ofeligible votersin this race, over 259,000, significantly exceeded expectations. But the party won't confirmhow many memberships each candidate submitted.

Strategists across several campaigns suggest as many as 80,000signed up independently, meaning they're free agents.

Then there's the 30,000-plus thatO'Leary's team claimed to have signed up. Will they followhis suggestion to back Bernier? Or will they just not vote?

"Now that this race has been thrown open by his departure, members of the party can now vote with their hearts," said Melanie Paradis, who's working forErin O'Toole. "They don't have to feel that they have to vote for one particular person that they want to go up against O'Leary."

Rival camps concede that Bernierappeals to manynew members. But several feel long-time party members are more likely to vote.

Only one in three cast a vote in the 2004 Conservative leadership race.

"We need to have a higher turnout than last time," Bernier has said.

Early indications of how manyballots have been returnedaren'texpected until Monday, when officials start opening envelopes and checking voternames off the master list at theDeloitteCanada offices in Vaughan, Ont.

Issues motivate, but polarize

"Certain camps probably have more motivated bases than others," said Chisholm Poitier, a Michael Chong spokesman.

Those backing Chong, Bernier and Leitch, in particular, may turn out for policy or ideological reasons, he said.

"I kind ofsuspect the bases of all the other camps would have lower turnouts," Poitier said. "I don't sense the enthusiasm or the excitement in some of those camps."

Issue-oriented campaignscan be polarizing, however.

"Once you become the focus, people either like it or they don't," Andrew Scheer'sstrategist Hamish Marshall said.

Scheer andO'Toolehave the mostendorsements fromcaucus members. Their campaigns are seen asfriendly to the Conservativeestablishment.

When the race began last year, party membershipshad dropped below 100,000. Newcomers, if they turn out, could outnumber the party's base, and that makes thingstough to predict.

Campaigns are using the same kind of voter identification tools parties use in general elections.Scrutineersstart tracking who's voted next week.

The Leitch campaign, which originally flaggedthe 1,351 impropermembershipsstruck by the partylast March, says it's committed to makingsurenoquestionable ballots count.

No vote-splitting

"We won't win on the first ballot,"Bernieradmits. But if hegets more than 35 per cent,he'llbe hard to catch.

If he's lower, and someone like Scheer or O'Tooleiswithin striking distance (between five and ten points back), Bernier'sin trouble, other camps predict.

Voters can mark up to ten choices, but somemay mark only one and become "dead" whentheir candidate drops off.

If many rounds are required for someone to get a majority, Marshall, fromScheer's camp, predicts the leader maybe decided by a small share of the original vote.

Several camps predict overlapping supportbetween Chong, Raitt, O'Toole and possibly Scheer.

O'Toolehas said his second choice would beRaitt.Raitt said in one interview she was considering Scheer, but then later said she was not going to endorsea second choice.

"It will be interesting to see how that math plays out, once we get down to the final four ... how those votes start getting redistributed," saidParadisfromO'Toole'steam.

As candidate Brad Trost reminded his supporters in a recent email: "You can't split the vote."

But endorsinga second choice likeTrosthas is like saying you won't win.

Unlike conventions, which can inspire "cult-like" follower behaviour in delegates, it's "silly" to think candidates coulddirect second choiceson confidential mail-in ballots, Leitch organizer Diamond said.

Campaigns mustfocus now on turning out not just first-choice supporters, but also second and subsequent-choicesupportersbut only if those voters' top choices are likely to drop off first.

Don't count out Bernier. But don't count on him, either.