Conservatives are taking a cautious approach to India allegation, observers say

Just days after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made theastonishing allegation that Canada has "credible intelligence" linking agents of the Indian government to the killing of a Canadian citizen, the scandal has scarcelybeen mentioned during question period in the House of Commons.

There might be a good reason for that, observers say.

"There's a lot of landmines here," said Shakir Chambers, a former Conservative Party staffer and now a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies.

"If you're the opposition, if you overplay your hand on this, it can become a very dangerous issue."

On Monday, Prime Minister Trudeau set off global shock waves when hetold the House of Commons that security services have informationlinkingIndia's government to the killing of a Canadian citizen at a Sikh temple in British Columbia in June.

Hardeep Singh Nijjar, 45, was seen as a leader in the Sikh diaspora in Canada and had been active in a group supporting the push for an independent Sikh homeland in northern India, to be called Khalistan.

TheKhalistanmovement hasa long, often emotionalhistory in Canada.

"The relationship with India is complex. It's fraught with some challenges," said Garry Keller, former chief of staff to Conservative foreign minister John Baird.

"And, you know, that doesn't necessarily distil itself down into nice sound bites for question period."

WATCH | 'We need to see more facts' on India killing allegations, Poilievre says

'We need to see more facts' on India killing allegations, Poilievre says

12 months ago

Duration 1:41

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre wants the prime minister to 'come clean with all the facts' around an allegation India was linked to the death of a Canadian Sikh leader in B.C.

On Monday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievrecalled on theHouse of Commons to "put aside our differences to stand up for the rule of law." ByTuesday, he was demanding that Trudeau "come clean" with more information about the case.

That was fair and smart move, said Keller.

"He asked very, very pointed questions, which is his job to do as leader of the Opposition," he said.

While the issue wasn't raised in question period at all on Wednesday, MPs did discuss the issue in a special debate Tuesday night.

Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer was the only representative of his party to attend that debate a move noticed by others in the chamber.

"I am questioning, and I think Canadians should question, why the Official Opposition is absent from asking those questions and raising these concerns," said NDP MP Peter Julian.

Bloc MP Rhal Fortin also piled on.

"Where is the Official Opposition that should be here vigorously condemning the situation and maybe sharing some pain and suffering, putting forward its ideas and its point of view?" he asked.

"It is not here."

CBC News has reached out to the Conservative Party for comment but had not heard back before publication.

The risk of 'being on the wrong side'

Chambers said weighing in on such a complex issue would risk a backlash from outside the House of Commons.

"Being on the wrong side of an issue, orbeing insensitive [to] the concerns, could have consequences," he said.

Keller said Conservatives don't want to lead on the issue because they don't have any control over the narrative.

"Whatever you say has to also take into account that the news could change radically in the next hours. So you don't want to go out and say something thatputs you into yourself into a corner," he said.

"Ultimately, the government of Canada has to deal with this issue. They're the government. They're the one who has the latest intel and latest information. They're the one that has the bilateral relationship with India."

It's why both former staffers predict Canadians won't see Poilievre pivot from his tested messaging.

"If you're the Conservatives, you do not deviate from the economy and cost-of-living issues. If this comes up, have your response ready, but this is not your lead," said Chambers.

'Everything is political'

Focusing on those pocketbook issues has translated into success for the Conservatives in the polls.

"As much as there will be pushback around even raising the 'P' word around this, everything is political and everything has the potential to be political," said Shachi Kurl, president of the non-profit Angus Reid Institute.

"The Sikh community in Canada is one of the largest outside of India. There are elements of that community who have been very involved politically."

While no one voice speaks for an entire diaspora, some community members will feel validated by Trudeau's speech, Kurl said.

"That validation is not going to play badly for the Liberals. It's not going to play badly for the prime minister," she said.

WATCH |Trudeau holds ground on India allegations, Poilievre demands proof

Trudeau holds ground on India allegations, Poilievre demands proof

12 months ago

Duration 2:44

Justin Trudeau is standing firm on allegations the Indian government helped assassinate a Canadian Sikh leader on Canadian soil, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre demanded to see the intelligence used and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh wants to see a plan to protect Canadians who are on India's radar.

The Conservatives, she said, have to figure out how to avoid alienating those voters while leaving some daylight between themselves and the government.

"The line is a little bit trickier," Kurl said.

"It's something that is a bit of a political imperative, because you're not going to win a majority government or even win the most seats in Parliament"without winning ridings with large Sikh populations, she added.

While the broad issue of foreign interference "speaks to sort of very fundamental principles of Canadian sovereignty and democracy and respect for our borders and our laws and our actual physical sovereignty," it doesn't appear tosway the majority of Canadians, she said.

"What we also know, watching a year-plus of coverage around allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian elections, is that as much ink as it took up and as much oxygen as it took up, it did not actually move the needle politically for the Conservatives at all," she said.

"The needle didn't start to move until we saw the Conservatives going all-in on issues of cost-of-living and inflation and I think they've been very mindful of not losing."

While the Conservatives may be exercising caution for now, Keller said, theirmessaging on Nijjar's case likely will solidify ahead of the next election.

"We're a minority Parliament. If there's 15 to 20 ridings in the country where a swing of 1,000 votes here, a swing of 1,000 votes there can make a difference, I think, over time, parties are going to be thinking about that," he said.

"But it's still a bit fresh right now for people to get their heads wrapped around."