Conservative brand slipping in key regions, Nanos finds

The Conservatives are facing a cooler reception from Canadians as they headhome for the holidays, with new poll numbers suggesting a significant drop in the party's brand strength in traditional strongholds.

According to the Nanos Party Power Index, the Tories are losing ground to the NDPand Liberals in Ontario and the Prairies key battlegrounds in the next federal election.

"Stephen Harper and the Conservatives built their majority and their successful kind of resurgence on the Canadian political field in the West,"saidNikNanos, president and CEO ofNanosResearch. "Fast forward through this session not a great time for the Conservatives."

NanosResearch releases a new Party Power Index score each week. It's a combination of measurements of federal party brands based on questions about the parties and the leaders, scored on a scale between zero to 100 for each party.

In the prairies, Conservatives have dropped 12 points since MPs returned toParliament on Oct. 16. The Toriesmaintain the lead with a score of 54, but the Party Power Index shows the Liberals and NDPclosing in with scores of 52 and 47, respectively.

These numbers are based onrandom telephone (cell and land-line) interviews with 197 votersin the Prairie provinces using a four-week rolling average ending Oct. 18, 2013, and Dec. 6, 2014and are accurate to within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

"The Tories can't afford to lose more here because, you know what, if the Prairies start to unravel for the Conservatives, it won't be good news in the rest of the country," Nanos told Power & Politicshost Evan Solomon.

In Ontario, the Nanos numbers reveal significant gains for the New Democrats. Though they still sit in third place with a score of 48, the NDP have gained six points. In comparison, the Liberals fell six points and the Tories dropped four.

These results are based on random telephone (cell and land-line) interviews with 300 voters in Ontario using a four-week rolling average ending Oct. 18, 2013 and Dec. 6, 2014, accurate to within 5.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Which leader would make the best prime minister?

The polls also showNDP Leader Thomas Mulcair enjoying a lift from the fall session of Parliament. He's the only leader who has gained favour among Canadians in the past few months, according to the latest Nanos tracking numbers.

On the question of which major party leader would make best prime minister, Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau are in the lead withclose scores of 27 and 26, respectively. However, those scores reflect decreases of four and six points.

With a score of20, Mulcair has seen a four-point increase in his personal brand.

"Two lumps of coal for Harper and Trudeau and a little bit of a Christmas bump for Tom Mulcair coming out of the last session," said Nanos.

These tracking numbers are based onrandom telephone (cell and land-line) interviews with 1,000 Canadians using a four-week rolling average ending Oct. 18, 2013 and Dec. 6, 2014, accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Nik Nanos digs beneath the numbers with CBC News Network's Power & Politics to get to the political, economic and social forces that shape our lives. Recognized as one of Canada's top research experts, Nanos provides numbers-driven counsel to senior executives and major organizations. He leads the analyst team at Nanos, is a Fellow of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association and a Research Associate Professor with SUNY (Buffalo).