In 2016, Donald Trump will either be fired or hired by Republicans

While the most significant U.S political event in 2016 will be the presidential election in November, the lead-up could be just as intriguing in that the fate of Republican Donald Trump's controversial and surprisingcandidacy should finally be resolved.

On the Democratic side, unless something unforeseen happens, former senator and secretary of state Hillary Clinton should easilywrap up her party'spresidential nomination, meaning all the real drama will take place in the Republican race, as it has been for some months now.

"That's what's going to swallow all the political oxygen," says MatthewBaum, professor of public policy at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

In fact, most of that oxygen has already been gobbled up by Trump, the real estate mogul and former reality TV star,who, despite a slew of controversial statements,has befuddled prognosticators bycontinuingtolead in thepolls.

In this pre-primary period, theGOP racehas been looking like a contest between Trump, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator MarcoRubio.

And with neurosurgeon Ben Carson's campaign imploding, as witnessedbytheresignation of key members of his team, including his campaign manager, last week,New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is nowsaid to have a shot at beingthedark horse.

This is why so muchattention will be focussed on the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1, which kickoffthe presidentialnominatingcontest, culminating in a party convention in Cleveland in July.

Iowa the first test

"Iowa'sgoingto be interesting, and it will be the first test for us to see whether he [Trump]can turn his supporters into voters," saidTomBevan,co-founder and executive editor of theRealClearPolitics website.

Currently polls showCruz slightly ahead of the former host of The Apprentice in Iowa, and a second- or even third-place finish by Trumpwon't necessarily shock most observers.

Historically, Iowahasn't exactly been a strong predictor of the eventual Republican nominee, observes GeoffreySkelley, a political analyst at theUniversity of Virginia Centrefor Politics.Going back to 1976, there have been seven contested Iowa caucuses on the GOP side, and in just three of those did the eventual nominee triumph, he said.

"Trump has consistently highlighted the fact that he's a 'winner,'so the question is, would a loss in Iowa seriously damage the winningveneer of his candidacy? That's difficult to say."

A significant loss, though,couldaffect him psychologically, suggests political analyst StuartRothenberg, author of the highly regardedRothenbergPolitical Report.

"How does he deal with the fact that not everybody loves him?Is he then looking at a series of defeats and figures 'I don't want this, I don't want to risk two losses.'"

That's why the following primary a week later in New Hampshire,where polls currently have him leading the state by double digits,may prove more significant.

"The expectations are high there and he needs to meet them," saidBevan. If he wins by only a narrow margin, "Ithink that's going to make it really interesting for Trump in how he responds to that and how it will affect his overall campaign and strategy."

Mind you, if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, that would deal a severe blow to his candidacy, especially having consistently led in New Hampshire for so long,Skelleysaid.

Titanic clash in South Carolina?

Should Cruz win Iowa andTrumpNew Hampshire, that could set up a titanic clash in South Carolina's primaryonFeb. 20.

The winner of the South Carolina contest could use that as a jumping off point to win a large number of primaries onMarch 1throughout the South, Skelleysuggests.

"It would be fairly unlikely for [Trump]to win South Carolina if he wins neither of the first two contests. If that happens, I think we could safely say his star has burnt out."

IfTrump remains a strong contender, though, it will be interestinghow the Republican party, and its so-called establishment, reacts.

Cruz, who is considered a more polished alternative toTrump, and who looks poised to make a strongshowing in Iowa, South Carolina and onSuper Tuesday with its 12state primaries on March 1is also loathed by much oftheparty establishment.

Part of the problem for the GOP establishment is that its support is fractured,Skelleysays. While some back former Floridagovernor JebBush, others supportChristie or Ohio GovernorJohnKasich, while a fair number are trying to rally behindRubio.

"Many of these candidates are pretty much all-in on New Hampshire. If they don't do well there, their candidacies may meet a quick end.

"If a couple of these candidates drop out shortly after New Hampshire, it could enable the establishment to rally around one candidate,"Skelleysuggests.

"The conventional wisdom at the moment is thatRubiowill wind up being the de facto establishment candidate, though we'll see if that works out."

TheRubiocampaign seems to be waiting to see where, among the first three states, he has a chance to break out,Rothenbergsaid.

Andif hedoeswellenough in those states,that will help establish his campaignin Florida one of those winner-takes-all primaries, on March 15and possibly beyond.

Still, Rothenbergsaid thatstrategy seems somewhatreminiscent ofthe failed one employed in 2008 by former New YorkmayorRudy Giulianiwho decided to avoid fighting hard in the early primaries in the hope of cleaning up in the bigger states.

An early favourite to win the race, Giulianinever gained any realmomentum.

"Yougot towin somewhere and yougot towin sooner rather than later," Rothenberg says. "If you're notwinning early, your supportersmightjustas readily go tosomebodyelsewhopulls upasurprisewin."