'Disruption, distraction and dysfunction': What Doug Ford's Ontario PC leadership could mean for Canada

Saturday's Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership convention was supposed to close a chaotic six-week chapter in the party's history, providing a smooth transition to the campaign leading into the June election.

But the process was disorganized,the vote hours late and briefly contested by Christine Elliott, the candidate who finished second.

Though it was a result for one party in one province, Doug Ford's leadership could produce ripples that will be felt across the country.

If Ford is elected the next premier of Ontario, he could cause headaches forthe federal government, given his opposition to a carbon tax, his unpredictabilityand his capacity to influence Toronto ridings in next year's federal election, experts say.

Ford's populist message of taking down the "elites," cutting taxes and standing up to the federal government on things like the carbon tax resonated with manyOntarians.

The Liberals, currently led by KathleenWynne, have been in power in Ontario for nearly 15 years.Wynne's approval rating sits at around 18 per cent, and most polls favour the Conservatives to win the provincial election.

Ford's timing could be perfect.

Queen's Park vs. Parliament Hill

Wynneand Justin Trudeau have had fairly open channels of communication throughout her time in office channels Ford could choose to narrow.

The Ford familyhas shared scathing opinionsabout the prime minister, and that dynamic will be one to watch if Doug Ford gets the top job at Queen's Park.

Personal feelings will be an issue between Trudeau and Ford, according to GregMacEachern, a vice-president at Proof Strategies.

The prime minister, he said, will also be watching for surges of political activity across Canada that mirror Ford's electorate.

"If I'm Justin Trudeau and I'm the prime minister, I'm trying to figure out: are there linkages in different parts of the country?" said Tim Powers, vice-chairman of Summa Strategies.

Provincial ties

While Ford's potential premiershipcould cause headaches on Parliament Hill, provincial governments willturn their eyestowardhis reaction to controversial federal policies,such asthe carbon tax and pharmacare.

Each of the four Ontario PC candidates stated during the leadership race they were against imposing a carbon tax, butdidn't offer specifics on how they intended to navigate the issue with the federal government.

Ottawa has been very clear that if provincesdon't submit their own carbon pricing plans by September, the government will step in andimpose one in 2019.

• Liberals provide details of plan for national carbon tax

Some Atlantic provinces have argued they're already meeting environmental targets and should be granted exemptions. Former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall called the federal plan a "ransom note."

Handling the carbon tax,MacEachernsaid, will be a real challenge for Ford.

But other provincial politicianslike Saskatchewan PremierScott Moe and Jason Kenney, the polling favourite to be the next premier after Alberta's election in 2019 share his view on the tax,and that could enhance his positionwith the federal government.

Whatever pushback he intends to give, Ford will have to balance that with the need to not push Ottawa too far, Powers said. If he's too forceful, he could hurt his chances of re-election.

On top ofmanaginghis relationship with politicians on the Hill, Ford will need to be careful not to alienatehis potential fellow premiers.

"I have a tough time seeing a Doug Ford government having enough patience and diplomacy to be able to find common ground with other provinces," said PeterGraefe, a provincial politics expert fromMcMasterUniversity.

"Doug Forddoesn't really seem like a man of compromise."

Doug Ford's acceptance speech as PC party leader

6 years ago

Duration 4:36

Doug Ford delivered his acceptance speech as PC party leader after officials worked to resolve an issue regarding some key ballots a process that took more than seven hours.

The carbon tax is only one of the big-ticket items in provincial politics these days. The federal Budget 2018 raised the notion of a nationalpharmacarestrategy, but neglected to expand on the details.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated apharmacareprogram would cost about $19 billion per year, though it's unclear how much of that cost the provinces would be expected to shoulder.

• Pharmacare won't be free for all Canadians, Bill Morneau says

Ford's stance on carbon pricing means he'd be looking elsewhere for the estimated $4 billion in income the tax would provide.

He also campaigned heavily on tax cuts, leaving little room for the spending pharmacarelikelywould demand.

"If he's going to bring tax breaks to Ontario, he's going to have to watch his spending and investments," Powers cautioned.

'Disruption, distraction and dysfunction'

Ford represents a populist shift in Ontario politics that could beginto swell in other parts of Canada.

With his supporters keen to take down so-called elites, put grassroots movements first and take care of the working class, Ford can't escape comparisons with U.S. President Donald Trump.

If Ford is elected premier, Ontario will enter a state of flux, according to KarlBlanger, president of the Douglas-ColdwellFoundation.

Power Panel: What does a Doug Ford-led-PC party mean for the upcoming Ontario election campaign?

6 years ago

Duration 15:05

Marcella Munro, Dan Moulton, Rachel Curran and Josh Wingrove weigh in.

"You will enter an era of unpredictability," he said, comparing it tothe election of both Trump and the late Rob Ford.

That unpredictability could make or break Doug Ford's shot at becoming premier.

He has the ability to entertain Canadians, but his challenge will be to shapepolicies that makepeople take him seriously,MacEachernsaid.

Powers agreed.

"I think there are three Ds with Doug: I think you get disruption, distraction and dysfunction."

The trick? Exercising self control before the disruption morphs into dysfunction, Powers said.

Looking ahead to 2019

If he's elected keeper of Canada's largest provincial economy, Ford's sway could play a large role in the 2019 federal election. However, it's not certain yet which party might benefit from his presence.

• Poll Tracker: Federal poll averages and seat projections

AwakeningdormantTory support in Liberal-dominated ridings in Toronto, for example, could give a boost to federal Conservative Party Leader AndrewScheer,Graefesaid. But if Fordoverplayshis hand, hecould keep those ridings Liberal.

It all depends on whether his potential tenure as premier is defined by calculated policy ortempestuous battles.