Conservative leadership debate in Edmonton the latest to showcase political manoeuvring

The Conservative leadership debateshave notfeatured any of the mythical knockout punchesthat are supposed to win elections, but the subtle(and not so subtle) manoeuvringthat will help decide the outcome has been on full display most recently duringTuesday night's event in Edmonton.

And that includes Kevin O'Leary's decision to skip it.

Since the first officialdebatein Saskatoon on Nov. 9, the candidates have been up against each other11 times. The party will hold one more official debate, and more local events are likely to be organized.

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After so many sparring matches, candidates have little new to present to members. Still, the debates have showcased some candidates' strategies fornavigatingthe campaign's voting rules.

Therules give equal weight to each of Canada's 338 ridings,regardless of the number of members per riding, and each member is allowedto rank up to 10 candidates on apreferential ballot.

Candidates are also asking themselves thelarger strategic question ofwhether to focuson current membersor attempt to bring new people into the party.

The hunt for second choices

With a preferential ballot and 14 candidates, being members' second or third choice is almost as valuable as being their first.

In Edmonton, when some of the other candidates were dismissing MichaelChong'sclimate change plan(AndrewScheercompared it to the "tooth fairy"), ErinO'Toolespoke against the Liberal government's carbon pricing plan instead.O'Toole, running as a centrist, consensus candidate, cannot afford to alienateChong'svoters, who hail from the progressive wing of the Conservative Party.

At theManning Conference in Ottawa on Friday,LisaRaitt, who explicitly asked for second or third preference support in Edmonton, tookMaximeBernierto taskon the issue of supply management.Bernierwants to abolish it.

The defence of supply management has been a focus ofStevenBlaney'scampaign, but his support seems to belargely confined to his home province of Quebec where Raitt, who has difficulty speakingFrench, has limited appeal.Securing the second or third spot on the ballot ofBlaney'ssupporters would help her considerably.

ButBlaneymay do well on the first ballot due to his concentration of support in Quebec, where few candidates other thanBernierappear to have strong support. The province's 78 ridings will award 23 per cent of all the points in the race, soBlaneycould put up strong numbers even if his support in the rest of the country is slim.

SoBlaneyneeds to be the second choice of members outside Quebec. But he will only benefitif those members' first choicedrops off the ballot first.

This could explain why, in theVancouver debate on Feb. 19,Blaneyintroduced Chris Alexander. In Ottawa and Edmonton, he complimented both BradTrostand PierreLemieux, and commendedDeepakObhraion his participation in the debate in Quebec City despitehis poor French-language skills.

These are all candidates who could drop off the ballot beforeBlaneyand their supporters could propel him up the rankings.

Securing the lead

Bernier, who isleading the field in fundraising, might not need second-choice support to push him to the top of the list but he will need it to keep him there.

Accordingly,Berniertook the time in both the Ottawa and Edmontondebates to emphasize how he would allow his MPs greater freedom, including puttingforward bills and motions in the House of Commons on issues like abortion.

This is a direct invitation for the supporters of social conservative candidates likeTrostandLemieux(along withScheer, though that is not a focus of his campaign) to rankBernierhighly despite beingconsidered "not supportable," due to his voting record, by the Campaign Life Coalition, an anti-abortion advocacy group.

Bernieralso took pains in Ottawa to criticize the equalization formula's accounting of the resource sector, which could help shore up his support in Western Canada.

Attacking the front runners

KellieLeitch, who is second in fundraising, has increasingly become a target of attacks from some of her rivals. This is usually a signal that the other campaigns see a candidate as a frontrunner. But it might also be an indication that attackingLeitch, who hashigh negatives among Conservative voters, is seen as a means of attracting support from members who oppose her candidacy.

In Ottawa,Leitchwas criticized on health care by Alexander andO'Toole, while in the debates inLangley, B.C.,on Feb. 18andin Edmonton on Tuesday, her plan to screen immigrants for "Canadian values" was dismissed by Alexander,Chongand Rick Peterson.

In Edmonton,LeitchandBlaneywere critical ofBernier the frontrunner of those on the stage.

But the main target of attacks in the debates he has participated inhas been O'Leary. The businessman and television personality, however, has not taken the bait. He has avoided going after the other candidates and limited his criticisms to Prime Minister JustinTrudeau, largely ignoring the rest of the Conservative field.

This plays into his campaign's strategy of signing new members to the party. Havingthe highest profile by a wide margin he could afford to skip the Edmonton debate, where he would have faded into the crowd of 14 candidates on the stage.

His opponents recognized this. Not needing to give him any more attention, he was not mentioned by name throughout the Edmonton debate.

Still, O'Leary does appear to have recognized that he might need the support of current party members. After telling the audience of thePointe-Claire, Que., debate on Feb. 13that they would need to "get used to" changing social values, O'Leary mentioned in Ottawa that his would be a "big tent" party, including Conservatives with an array of different views.

The debate inPointe-Clairealso demonstrated O'Leary's shaky French a weaknessheavoided showcasing again by staying off the Edmonton stage.

With Quebec holding the weight in this race, that might have played into his political calculations. If that werethe case, though, he didn't need to worry this bilingual debate was held almost entirely in English.