Conservative MP endorsements made a difference in leadership vote

Conservative leadership candidates who sought the endorsements of their colleagues apparently did so with good reason. An analysis of the Conservative leadership vote suggests that MP endorsements had a positive impact.

And in the case of Andrew Scheer, who won the leadership by a slim margin, that impact was a potentially decisive one.

While it is impossible to know for certain what influence MPs had on the vote of members in their home ridings their efforts on behalf of their supported candidate varied and some MPs may have endorsed candidates they knew to be popular among constituents the results suggest that MPs were largely able to deliver votes fortheir candidate of choice.

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On average, the 70 MPs who made an endorsement boosted their candidate's support in their own riding by an average of 11.4 points on the first ballot, compared to how that candidate did in ridings (within the same province) in which they did not receive an endorsement.

Only five of those70 MPsfailed to give their favoured candidate a boost: Jacques Gourde (who endorsed Maxime Bernier), Peter Kent (Michael Chong), Jim Eglinski (Erin O'Toole), Matt Jeneroux (Scheer) and Bob Saroya (Scheer).

Gourde's endorsement was the least helpful. Bernier did six points worse in Gourde'sLvisLotbinireriding than he did elsewhere in Quebec.

Did caucus support put Scheer over the top?

With only seven endorsements from sitting MPs, Bernier did not get much of a boost from caucus support. The combined effect of their endorsements was some 111 points, or 15.8 points per riding, based on the difference in Bernier's performance in ridings within the same province where he was and was not endorsed by a sitting MP. That is a small fractionof the 16,578 points he had by the 13th and final ballot.

Scheer's endorsements, however, might have been more significant. His boost averaged 14.8 points per riding and their total valuewas about 355points on the first ballot more than half of Scheer'smargin of victory over Bernier on thefinal ballot. Had those points gone to Bernier instead, he would have squeaked by.

The strong caucus support for O'Toole may have also helped Scheer by the final ballot. O'Toole had more MPs backing him than any other candidate, though they failed to deliver as many votesat an average of 9.6 points per riding. Nevertheless, this represented 299 points on the first ballot.

On the final ballot, Scheer received about 59 per cent of O'Toole's points to push him past Bernier.

The MPs who delivered

Alain Rayeswas the top performer among all endorsing MPs, as Scheer took 84 per cent of the vote in his riding of RichmondArthabaska, nearly 58 points better than Scheer's performance in Quebec ridings where he had no endorsement.

Luc Berthold was the next-best performer, boosting Scheer by 50 points in his Quebec riding of MganticL'rable.

How much of thesescores can be chalked up to Rayesand Berthold, however, is up for debate. Scheer was backed by dairy farmers who opposed Bernier's policy to end supply management. The two ridings of RichmondArthabaskaand MganticL'rable arein the centre of Quebec's dairyindustry.

Alupa Clarke in BeauportLimoilouboosted Bernier by 43 points, while Mark Strahl gave Scheer a 33-point bump in ChilliwackHope.

Five other MPs increased their candidate's support by 20 points or more (James Bezanand Ed Fast for O'Toole, Tom Kmiec for Bernier and Garnett Genuis and Arnold Viersen for Scheer).

Proportionate to a candidate's support, Grard Deltell was the most helpful endorsement in the race. Though he was unable to deliver his Quebec riding of Louis-Saint-Laurent to O'Toole, who finished second there, the Ontario MP did more than 3.9 times better in Louis-Saint-Laurentthan he did elsewhere in Quebec.

The importance of caucus support

The analysis suggests thatwhile endorsements may not have been a critical factor in the race, they could have made the difference at the end of a very close vote. In addition,Scheer was able to gather second-choice support throughout the count, suggesting he was a broadly acceptable option to a majority of voting members. His support within caucus might have contributed to that perception.

However, Bernier nearly won the vote with very little support within caucus while O'Toolefinished a distant third despite being the most popular choice among Conservative MPs demonstratingthat caucus support is not a determinant factor.

This may prove to be a lesson forthe on-going race for the leadership of the NDP. Caucus endorsements alone will not deliver victory to any candidate. But in a close contest, it is better to have them than not.