6 things fundraising data tell us about NDP leadership race

The results of the first round of voting for the NDP leadership race will be announcedSunday and the latest fundraising numbers providesome clues about what to expect.

Elections Canada posted the interim campaign returns on Monday and Tuesday, showing where the four candidatesstand in terms of fundraising up to a few weeks ago.

Ontario MPP Jagmeet Singh led the field with $619,000 raised since entering the race in May, followed by Ontario MP Charlie Angus at $374,000, Manitoba MP Niki Ashton at $251,000 and Quebec MP Guy Caron at $189,000.

The total for Caron includes the $25,000 he donated to his own campaign, whereas Singh and Ashton each loaned their campaigns $25,000, which is not included in the total released by Elections Canada. With the exception of Angus's return, which includesdonations up to Sept. 7, these numbers are up to date as of Sept. 14.

Digging deeper into them reveals some of the contours of thecampaign.

Singh could have big 1st ballot result

Singh has raised the most money and can also claim the greatest numberof unique contributors about 5,500, compared to 3,500 for Angus, 3,200 for Ashton and 1,300 for Caron. But while these numbers suggest he has the potential for a strong first ballot result, an outrightvictory may be difficult.

Singh has raised 44 per cent of every dollardonated to one of the candidates and 41per cent of leadership donors gave money to his campaign. If fundraising provides any indication ofpotential support, Singh is below the 50 per cent of the vote neededto win on the first ballot.

Working in his favour, however, is his strong performance in Ontario and B.C., two provinces that combine for 68 per cent of the NDP's membership. He raised $454,000 in Ontario and $95,000 in B.C. Altogether, that represents49per cent of the money raised by any candidate in these two crucial provinces.

Singh's momentum might be waning

Thefigures suggestSingh wasn'table to maintain his fundraising dominance through the summer. Up to the end of June, when he had been in the race for just six weeks, he had raised $357,000, more than his three rivals combined. That impressive pacewas a signal that Singh had the potential to blow away the competition.

Over the next 10weeks, however, Singh raised $262,000, less than half of all money raised by the leadership candidates over that period.

But Singh has had a strong September relative to his opponents. In the first two weeks, he raised $56,000 while Caron raised $20,000 andAshton raised $15,000. Angus raised $11,000 in the first week of September.

Angus tops Toronto, Singh dominating GTA

Singh raised more money in the Greater Toronto Area, outside of the city itself,than Angus did throughout the province or Ashton and Caron did throughout the country.

About 52 per cent of every dollar raised by Singh's campaign, or $322,000, came from the GTA, where he represents a seat in the Ontario legislature. His next closest competitor in the GTA was Angus, at$41,000.

But despite holding a seat in northern Ontario, Angus raised the mostmoney in Toronto. He took in $92,000 in the city, just edging out Singh's $90,000.

Angus was also the top fundraiser in eastern Ontario, as well as in his native northern Ontario. He collected $56,000 in contributions there, representing 87per cent of all the money raised in the region.

Ashton is the Prairie favourite

Ashtondid well in her home region, too. She raised the most money in Manitoba, as well as in Saskatchewan and Alberta. In all, she raised $63,000 in the three provinces. That put her well ahead of Angus's $34,000, Singh's $29,000 and Caron's $19,000.

What do the latest fundraising numbers tell us about the NDP leadership race?

7 years ago

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CBCs Poll Analyst Eric Grenier has crunched the numbers and has the details

These three provinces account for 23 per cent of the NDP's membership, making them a potentiallyimportant voting bloc though membership numbers could have been driven more by the provincial leadership contests in Saskatchewan and Manitobathan by the federal vote.

Caron leads in Quebec, but just barely

Much has been made about the importance of Quebec to the NDP not for winning the leadership asmembers from the province make up just fourper cent of the national total, but for winning the next general election. The NDP's caucus has 16 MPs from Quebec, more than in any other province.

Caron led the field with $40,000 raised in Quebec, but that put him just ahead of Singh's $33,000. Ashton was thirdwith $15,000.

The regional breakdown, however, shows Caron and Singh's support came from different parts of the province. Singh raised most of his money in the Montreal region ($26,000) while Caron raised the bulk of his outside the province's biggest city ($33,000).

This does align with Caron's message to NDP members, that the party needs to appeal to Quebecers outside of Montreal to win seats. But Caron's advantage in Quebec was exaggerated by the greater amount the average donorin the province gave to him. In total number of contributors, Ashton, Caron and Singh were roughly tied.

Singh taps into Sikh community

In the final debate of the campaign in Vancouver, both Ashton and Angus expressed concerns about Singh's potentialappeal in every part of the country.

"I know he raised a lot of money, and certainly a lot of that money was raised in Brampton," said Angus. "But how do we make sure that is going to affect Lac-Saint-Jean, how's that going to affect Moose Jaw?"

Singh has indeed raised a lot of money in Brampton, Ont., where he holds a seat. Fully $179,000, or 29 per cent of all of his fundraising, came from Brampton. By comparison, the other candidates combined raised little more than $2,000 in the city.

The implication, however, was not just geographic. There is a large Sikh community in Brampton, of which Singh is a member. Singh has certainly galvanized Sikhs to supporthis campaign 1,200 of his contributions come from people namedSingh or Kaur. Judging by donor names, at least a majority of Singh's backers appear to have been drawn from the Sikh community.

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But that doesn't mean Singh will struggle to reach voters in other parts of the country. At least, he shouldn't struggle any more than his rivals.

Angus, the one who posed the question,had the same number of donors from Moose Jaw, Sask., and Quebec's Lac-Saint-Jean region as Singh did: three.