Table set for Honda's massive bet on Canada's electric vehicle sector

When word of Honda's soon-to-be-announced electric vehicle investment leaked to Bloomberg News on Sunday,Ontario Premier Doug Ford saw anopening to boast about his government's success in getting into the automotive battery business.

"We've overtaken China and knocked them off the pedestal for the first time ever," he toldthe First Nations Major Project Coalition conference on Monday morning, referring to Canada's top spot in a recent global supply chain ranking. "That's absolutely huge."

Expect moresuperlatives when Honda Canada makes its officialannouncement in Alliston, Ont., on Thursday, asgovernment and industry leaders celebratethe fact that the company behind some of Canada'smost popular models is settlingin for the long haulin Canada'sEV sector.

"This may be Honda's biggest bet anywhere on the planet," Flavio Volpe, the president of the Automotive Manufacturers Association of Canada, told CBC News. He called it a "double down" on Canadaand"an announcement that I think will be heard around the world."

Honda doesn't make speculative bets, he said. "They've been in Canada for almost 40 years. They've never retreated, they've never gone back. This is, for Canadian suppliers, anextremely bankable customer to get."

Enjoying the hype this announcement is generatingmeans ignoring, for the time being,the fact that most of Northern Ontario's critical minerals are years (if not decades)away from powering all the new EVsCanadians will be federally mandated to purchase after 2035 to meet federal carbon emissions targets.

It means overlooking the factthat Ford's government remains well short of the Indigenous partnerships and permissions it will need to fulfil its Ring of Fire mining aspirations. It means dismissing thefailure to date ofearly consumer incentives and spiking spring gas prices to set off a rush of EV sales,and the fact thatmanyof the new EVson Ontario's roads wereimportedfrom a Tesla gigafactory inShanghai.

"Here in Ontario, we've become a world leader in the electric vehicle revolution," Ford bragged.

How big is 'big'?

Ford said the deal coming this week will be "double the size of Volkswagen."

The $7 billion VWbattery plant now under constructionin St. Thomas, Ont., covers roughly 150 hectares over 200 football fields. It's "like a city in itself," Ford said.

It was not clear from Ford's comments if he meant Honda's new operation will cover twice the acreage of the Volkswagen plant, or if its investment is double the size of the Volkswagen deal. Either way, it's historic.

In January, the Japanese news outlet Nikkei was the first to report Honda was consideringan investment of 2 trillion yen (about $18 billion Cdn) to start upan EV supply chain in Canada.

Ford's economic development minister, Vic Fedeli, appeared to confirm Thursday's figures could be on that scale when speaking to reporters at Queen's Park on Monday.

Ontario's EV investments "went from zero to $28 billion in three years," he said, before hedging slightly.

"If the premier, if his comments are correct," he added, "then next week we'll be announcing $43 billion in EV,or a number in and around there."

So is Honda about to invest $15 billion in Ontario?

Not so fast. In a subsequent report publishedTuesday, Nikkei said Honda was preparing a one-trillion yen announcement (approximately$8.8billion.)

As the premier told his Monday audience, "stay tuned."

How much will taxpayers contribute?

The timing ofHonda's announcement was a business decision but it's a happy coincidence for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that it fellin the midstof his ministers' post-budget marketing tour.

Only a few months after Trudeau signalled that the federal government was running out of money for automotive subsidies prompting fearsthat Toyota Canada would hit the brakes on further Ontario expansiona change in government tactics apparently paid off.

Canada's share of North American manufacturingcould have been in jeopardy if the federal and provincial governments hadn't stepped up with both investment tax credits and production subsidies tocompete with theInflation Reduction Act introduced by U.S. President Joe Biden.

Thosebillions were enough to land Ontario its first two battery plants: the VW plantin St. Thomas and the Stellantisfacilityin Windsor. But the Trudeau government warned at the time that their production subsidies aren'tsustainable.

The sweeteners offered to land this Honda deal are more predictable because they're based on the valueof Honda'sinvestment, notfuture production levels.

In the 2023 federal budget, the Liberals introduced a clean manufacturing investment tax credit that rebates30 per cent of the cost of new machinery and equipment. Its implementation legislation,C-59, has yet to pass;the Liberals hope it receives royal assent by June.

Last week, the 2024 federal budget introduced a ten per cent electric vehicle supply chain investment tax credit to offsetthe cost of buildings. Companies receiving the tax credit mustinvestinthree parts of the EV supply chain:EV assembly, battery production andproduction of cathode active material for those batteries.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's department took the lead in federal talks with Honda; her budgetforecasts a $80 million expenditure on this tax credit over the next five years. The federal government hashintedit anticipatesabout $800 million in investment on eligible buildings between now and 2029.

Honda appearsset to be the firstand possibly the only carmaker to make the vertical investments required to access this credit, with an expansion of its facilities in Allistonas well as other yet-to-be announced expansions in Ontario.

WATCH: Honda set to bet big on Canada's EV sector

Honda expected to announce plans to build EVs in Canada

4 months ago

Duration 1:59

CBC News has confirmed that Honda is gearing up to announce a multibillion-dollar deal to build electric vehicles in Canada. Though not all the details are known, Ontario's premier hinted it's the largest deal in Canadian history.

CBC News has not confirmed that a site earmarked for EV battery production in St. Clair township near Sarnia, Ont.,ispart of Honda's negotiations. FedelisaidMonday that landin Wilmot township near Waterloo, Ont., was not part of Honda'splans.

Quebec's economy minister, Pierre Fitzgibbon, told reporters at the National Assembly Tuesday that he was in talks to land a piece of Honda's business at the industrial park inBcancour, Que., where other automotive giants are setting up cathode materials manufacturing.

Fitzgibbon admitted hewas outbid by Ontario.

To help attract EV investment, Ontario's 2023 provincial budget included a 10 per cent refundable corporate income tax credit for eligible investments in buildings, machinery and equipment, worth up to $2 million a year for individual corporations.

The Toronto Star has reported that when the Stellantis deal was in jeopardy, the federal government convinced the Ford government to pile on more provincial subsidiesin return for federal cooperation on the environmental assessments required to buildHighway 413.

It's not known whether a similar last-minutesqueezehappened in theHonda talks. Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy'sstatement in reaction to the April 16federal budget nodded to thisHighway 413 quid pro quo and revived Ontario's demand for the federal government to "eliminate duplicative reviews and processes that are slowing down" Ring of Fire projects.

Are more Japanese investments coming?

Volpesaidthe new rules hammered out during the NAFTArenegotiation talks anticipated thetransition toelectrified powertrain products and batteries by making surecarmakerscouldn't source components offshore (China, mainly) withoutrisking tariffs.

During a 2023 visit to Canada, JapanesePrime MinisterFumio Kishida called China a "central challenge."

Geopolitically, Japan is far more comfortable working with Canada to source thecritical minerals its automotive engineers need.

Last September, Japan's economy, trade and investment minister Yasutoshi Nishimuravisited Ottawa with a delegation of Japanese businesspeople fromits battery supply chain association (BASC) and corporations like Panasonic Energy, Asahi-Kasei, Mitsubishi, Mitsuiand Sumitomo. Theysigned memoranda of cooperation withCanadian companies about sharingtechnology and business intelligence.

This week's Honda announcement willbe Canada's biggest EV investment dealso far. But it wasn't the first and it's not expected to be the last.

Now that Honda's seen enough to place its bet and become Ontario's third EV battery maker, attention will turn to whether Toyota mightreconsider becomingthe fourth and whether Canada's clean power gridscanaccommodate more ambition.

"Every single car company is spending all of their future R&D dollars on electrified product or fuel cell project product, anything that's zero emission," Volpe said, dismissing the naysayers who've lost faith due to slow consumer sales.

"We all know where we're going."