Justin Trudeau's electoral reform plan needs to 'get going'

Justin Trudeau has pledged that 2015 would be the last time Canadians elect a federal government using the first-past-the-post system. But if the prime minister-designateis truly committed to electoral reform by the next election, the clock is ticking.

While it maynot seem like one of his more pressing issues,Trudeau hassaid he would introduce legislation on voting reformwithin 18 months of forming a government, based on the recommendations of an all-party parliamentary committee to study alternative voting systems, including proportional representation and ranked ballots.

That timeframe may be overly ambitious, suggests David McLaughlin, who was deputy minister to the New Brunswick Commission on Legislative Democracy.

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McLaughlin figures it would take at least a year to conduct that kind of a review, with a countrywide referendum possibly following in the second year. And that doesn't include the time it would take to actually passthe legislation.

But a change to Canada's voting system does not necessarily require anyconstitutional considerations onlyan amendment to the Canada Elections Act through Parliament. Trudeau's majority government has the votes to pass this, but the amendment would still likely entail parliamentary hearingsandface opposition from the other parties, in particular the Conservatives.

'He's got to get going'

If a new system is chosen, new electoral boundaries would likely have to be drawn, a process, depending on the change,thatcould take a year. Not to mention the time Elections Canada would need to launch an information campaign.

In my mind, it is simply anti-democratic to allow a minority to rule over the majority. Prof. Andrew Heard, Simon Fraser University

"If he wants to do it, he's got to get going,"McLaughlin said.

Trudeau could save time and forgo a referendum. Andelectoral reform initiatives in Ontario, B.C. and P.E.I. in the past have gone down to defeat.

"I think that would tell us how committed [Trudeau] is to it. Because if he goes the referendum route, it pretty much says he wants it to fail," said York University political science professor Dennis Pilon, an expert in electoral reform.

It's a fairquestion, as the Oct. 19 Liberals may not be as excited about electoral reform as the Oct. 18Liberals. Changing the voting systemmay have seemed like a swell idea at a time when winning a 184-seat majority was a pipe dream. But achange in the system, for example to full proportional representation, would mean a net loss of about 50 seats for the party.

There are benefits to thecurrent plurality system. Itproduces more stable governments, more parliamentary majorities which in turn make governing more effective and productive. Aswitch would likely create morecoalitions and increase the frequency ofelections.

'Profoundly unfair'

But advocates for reform, like Simon FraserUniversity political science professor AndrewHeard, say the current system distorts election results, since the share of seats a party wins is seldom proportional to its share of the votes.

"This is profoundly unfair. A multi-party system like ours also means that a party can command a majority in Parliament despite winning only about 40 per cent of the vote. In my mind, it is simply anti-democratic to allow a minority to rule over the majority," he said.

Trudeauhas indicated his support for a ranked ballot system, where voters pick thecandidates on a ballot in order of preference.

In this system, all the No. 1 choices are added up. If a candidate has a majority after the tally,they are declared the winner. If not,the candidate with the lowest vote total is knocked off, and their votes for other candidatestransferred based on the ranking preferences. A winner is declared when a candidate finally reaches a majority.

The problem, suggestsHeard, is that "by the time youget to third and fourth preferences you're getting a pretty tenuous connection to somebody."

Proportionalrepresentation, where parties are awarded seats based on the popular vote, is often seen as the most fair, the most truly representative of the voters' wishes and the approach most championed by smaller parties. It works quite simply receive 40 per cent of the vote, receive 40 per cent of the seats.

Detractors say it opens the doors to too many fringepartiesalthough thiscan be remedied by setting a threshold, meaning aparty would have to attain a certain percentage of the popular vote in order to get any seats.

Many political scientists seem keenest on the mixed member proportional (MMP) system, like they have in Germany and New Zealand, which combines proportional representation with single member ridings. Voters would be asked to vote twice:for the candidate and for the party. So if aparty won 20 per cent of the vote, but its candidates only won 15 per cent, the party would top up its representation in the Housewith extra MPs.

There are different ways that could be done, but if the extra MPs are drawn from party lists,some argue it couldcreatea two-class system of representatives those who were actually voted in by the public and those chosen by the party.

"Theplurality system undeniablybenefitsthe Conservative Partyat this particular junction," Pilon said. "Right now, the problem for the Conservatives is theydon't have as many vote switchers as other guys"

"So the ranked ballot wouldbenefitthe Liberals the most because it wouldfunnel support from both directions to that party. Proportionalrepresentationwould definitely benefitthe NDP and the Greens."